FC Schalke 04 3-1 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC St. Pauli make the trip to VELTINS-Arena to face FC Schalke 04 in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Friday 1 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Current Form
FC Schalke 04's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, FC Schalke 04 have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
FC St. Pauli have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC St. Pauli's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FC St. Pauli arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for FC Schalke 04, 2 for FC St. Pauli and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended FC Schalke 04 1–3 FC St. Pauli — a FC St. Pauli win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC Schalke 04 half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
FC St. Pauli half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Schalke 04 51% versus FC St. Pauli 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Schalke 04 63% | FC St. Pauli 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Schalke 04 1.35 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Schalke 04 attack 0.898 / defence 1.011 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.212 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.372. FC St. Pauli have an above-average attack rating of 1.212, which lifts their away xG to 1.68. Data: built from FC Schalke 04's last 23 games and FC St. Pauli's last 57.
Result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 31% | Draw 24% | FC St. Pauli 45%. Fair-value odds: FC Schalke 04 3.23 | Draw 4.20 | FC St. Pauli 2.21. FC St. Pauli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.35 / 1.68) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC Schalke 04's last 10 home games and FC St. Pauli's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Schalke 04 50% (last 10 home games) | FC St. Pauli 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 24 | Venue: VELTINS-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 1 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 31% | Draw 24% | FC St. Pauli 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG FC Schalke 04 1.35 / FC St. Pauli 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: FC Schalke 04 attack 0.898 / def 1.011 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.212 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
FC Schalke 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.68
FC St. Pauli xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli FAQs
What time does FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 1 March 2024 at VELTINS-Arena.
What was the final score in FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli?
FC Schalke 04 3 - 1 FC St. Pauli.
Where is FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at VELTINS-Arena.
What competition is FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli part of?
FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 24) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives FC Schalke 04 a 31% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC Schalke 04 and FC St. Pauli will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Schalke 04's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against FC St. Pauli's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (1.21x) against FC Schalke 04's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from FC Schalke 04's last 23 games and FC St. Pauli's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
31%
3.23
24%
4.20
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
FC Schalke 04 xG
Total xG
3.03
1.68
FC St. Pauli xG
3.23
31%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
6%
17.32
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are FC Schalke 04 and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 and 1.68 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Schalke 04 come into this having played 57 games, going 15W 12D 30L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, FC St. Pauli sit at 1.86 PPG from 57 outings (29W 19D 9L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five.
FC St. Pauli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of FC Schalke 04 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Schalke 04's home form reads 11W 6D 11L across their last 28 home games, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, FC St. Pauli have taken 1.64 points per game from their last 28 away games (13W 7D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
FC Schalke 04 are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.72 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Schalke 04
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
FC Schalke 04 (Home) vs FC St. Pauli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Schalke 04
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli Form FAQs
What form are FC Schalke 04 and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
FC Schalke 04 have gone 15W 12D 30L in their last 57 games (1.00 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 29W 19D 9L in their last 57 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Schalke 04 at home or FC St. Pauli away?
FC St. Pauli's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Schalke 04 at home: 1.39 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.64 PPG.
Have FC Schalke 04 or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Schalke 04 have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between FC Schalke 04 and FC St. Pauli, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 1 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Schalke 04 have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Schalke 04
0
Draws
2
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and FC St. Pauli?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Schalke 04 have won 2, FC St. Pauli have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Schalke 04 and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2024: FC Schalke 04 3-1 FC St. Pauli.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Schalke 04 54%, FC St. Pauli 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for FC Schalke 04 and 61% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Schalke 04 have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Schalke 04 home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Schalke 04 and FC St. Pauli matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of FC Schalke 04's games and 61% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Schalke 04 and FC St. Pauli matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of FC Schalke 04's matches and 61% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do FC Schalke 04 and FC St. Pauli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of FC Schalke 04's recent matches and 79% of FC St. Pauli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Schalke 04 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC St. Pauli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Schalke 04 beat FC St. Pauli 3-1 at VELTINS-Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 1.35 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.68 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Schalke 04 beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 0.90 / defence 1.01 against FC St. Pauli attack 1.21 / defence 0.95, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 31% | Draw 24% | FC St. Pauli 45%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual FC Schalke 04 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 63%, FC St. Pauli 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with FC Schalke 04 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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