SV Wehen 1-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 make the trip to BRITA-Arena to face SV Wehen in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Friday 23 February 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
SV Wehen's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Wehen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at BRITA-Arena, SV Wehen have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — SV Wehen are significantly better at BRITA-Arena than their overall form suggests.
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SC Paderborn 07 are 0.70 PPG clear of SV Wehen in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SV Wehen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, SC Paderborn 07 in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: SV Wehen 0W, SC Paderborn 07 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SV Wehen — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Wehen 58% and SC Paderborn 07 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Wehen 42% | SC Paderborn 07 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Wehen 1.23 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Wehen attack 0.838 / defence 1.059 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.983 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.370. Data: 22 SV Wehen games / 56 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Wehen 33% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 42%. Fair-value odds: SV Wehen 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | SC Paderborn 07 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SV Wehen 70% | SC Paderborn 07 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: BRITA-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 23 Feb 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Wehen 33% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG SV Wehen 1.23 / SC Paderborn 07 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: SV Wehen attack 0.838 / def 1.059 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.983 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
SV Wehen xG
Expected Goals
1.43
SC Paderborn 07 xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 23 February 2024 at BRITA-Arena.
What was the final score in SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07?
SV Wehen 1 - 2 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at BRITA-Arena.
What competition is SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives SV Wehen a 33% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SV Wehen and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (1 meetings): SV Wehen 0W | Draws 0 | SC Paderborn 07 1W.
What form are SV Wehen and SC Paderborn 07 in?
SV Wehen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SV Wehen's attack rating (0.84) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (0.98x) against SV Wehen's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 22/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
33%
3.08
26%
3.86
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
SV Wehen xG
Total xG
2.66
1.43
SC Paderborn 07 xG
3.08
33%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
8%
12.81
12%
8.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are SV Wehen and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for SV Wehen and 1.43 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 24 outings, SV Wehen have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 9W 6D 9L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for SV Wehen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07's form line: 10W 5D 9L from 24 games, 1.46 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for SV Wehen against 1.46 for SC Paderborn 07. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SV Wehen have posted 1.73 PPG from 11 outings (5W 4D 2L).
On the road, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 5W 2D 4L from 11 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
SV Wehen are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.50 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 67%.
Last 24 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Wehen
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Wehen and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
SV Wehen have gone 9W 6D 9L in their last 24 games (1.38 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 10W 5D 9L in their last 24 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Wehen at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SV Wehen's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Wehen at home: 1.73 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Wehen
0
Draws
2
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and SC Paderborn 07?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Wehen have won 0, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Wehen and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2024, when SV Wehen 1-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SV Wehen and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for SV Wehen, 73% for SC Paderborn 07 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (SV Wehen) and 82% (SC Paderborn 07). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Wehen home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Wehen play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of SV Wehen's games and 73% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 36% of SV Wehen's matches and 82% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do SV Wehen and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
SV Wehen have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out SV Wehen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat SV Wehen 1-2 at BRITA-Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Wehen 1.23 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.43 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Wehen attack 0.84 / defence 1.06 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.98 / defence 0.92, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Wehen 33% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 42%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Wehen 42%, SC Paderborn 07 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Wehen's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Wehen 1.38 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. SV Wehen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.