Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-2 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fortuna Düsseldorf (64%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Fortuna Düsseldorf face 1. FC Magdeburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
1. FC Magdeburg travel to Düsseldorf Arena to take on Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 34). The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 May 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf stand at 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
1. FC Magdeburg — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Fortuna Düsseldorf carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Fortuna Düsseldorf: 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for 1. FC Magdeburg, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Fortuna Düsseldorf 3–2 1. FC Magdeburg — a Fortuna Düsseldorf win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Fortuna Düsseldorf and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 4.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 45%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
1. FC Magdeburg in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 58% versus 1. FC Magdeburg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 58% | 1. FC Magdeburg 57%). Note also that 1. FC Magdeburg surrender HT leads in 47% of cases while Fortuna Düsseldorf recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 45% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.95 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.096 / defence 0.779 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.745 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.383. 1. FC Magdeburg's attack rating of 0.745 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Fortuna Düsseldorf have a tight defence (rating 0.779), which is pulling 1. FC Magdeburg's projected output down. Data: built from Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 67 games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 67.
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 64% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 14%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.56 | Draw 4.60 | 1. FC Magdeburg 6.97. The model has a clear lean to Fortuna Düsseldorf (64%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 home games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Magdeburg 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 34 | Venue: Düsseldorf Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 64% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.95 / 1. FC Magdeburg 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.096 / def 0.779 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.745 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
0.80
1. FC Magdeburg xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg FAQs
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Düsseldorf Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 3 - 2 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Düsseldorf Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 34) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 64% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 1.10x the league average against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Magdeburg's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 67 games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
64%
1.56
22%
4.60
14%
6.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.75
0.80
1. FC Magdeburg xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
6.97
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
2%
48.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 0.80 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 67 outings, Fortuna Düsseldorf have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 34W 16D 17L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
1. FC Magdeburg's form line: 21W 18D 28L from 67 games, 1.21 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1. FC Magdeburg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 2.03 PPG from their last 33 home games (20W 7D 6L).
On the road, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 9W 8D 16L from their last 33 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.37 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Current Season
1. FC Magdeburg
Current Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf (Home) vs 1. FC Magdeburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Current Season
1. FC Magdeburg
Current Season
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg Form FAQs
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 34W 16D 17L in their last 67 games (1.76 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 21W 18D 28L in their last 67 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 2.03 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Dec 2024, when 1. FC Magdeburg won Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-5 1. FC Magdeburg.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting 1. FC Magdeburg specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fortuna Düsseldorf
0
Draws
3
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 5, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: 1. FC Magdeburg 2-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 64%, 1. FC Magdeburg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Fortuna Düsseldorf) and 58% (1. FC Magdeburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Düsseldorf keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; 1. FC Magdeburg in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 54% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 58% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent matches and 64% of 1. FC Magdeburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Düsseldorf edge out 1. FC Magdeburg 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat 1. FC Magdeburg 3-2 at Düsseldorf Arena, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.95 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 0.80 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. 1. FC Magdeburg outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.10 / defence 0.78 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.74 / defence 1.17, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 64% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 14%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 58%, 1. FC Magdeburg 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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