1. FC Magdeburg 0-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Magdeburg host SpVgg Greuther Fürth at MDCC-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 May 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Magdeburg stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
1. FC Magdeburg at MDCC-Arena this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — 1. FC Magdeburg are significantly better at MDCC-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1. FC Magdeburg at 1.00 PPG versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Magdeburg in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Magdeburg 58% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 58% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.66 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.907 / defence 0.981 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.897 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.436. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing 1. FC Magdeburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 1. FC Magdeburg games / 66 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 46% | Draw 25% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 29%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.45. 1. FC Magdeburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Magdeburg at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Magdeburg 50% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: MDCC-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 46% | Draw 25% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.66 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.907 / def 0.981 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.897 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.26
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 10 May 2024 at MDCC-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
1. FC Magdeburg 0 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at MDCC-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 46% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (3 meetings): 1. FC Magdeburg 1W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
1. FC Magdeburg's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus 1. FC Magdeburg's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
46%
2.15
25%
4.02
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
2.93
1.26
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.15
46%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
5%
18.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.3 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.26 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Magdeburg's recent record stands at 21W 17D 28L from 66 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-L in the last five.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth, meanwhile, have gone 23W 18D 25L across 66 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Magdeburg on 1.21 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, 1. FC Magdeburg have managed 12W 9D 12L from 33 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record stands at 6W 7D 20L across 33 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Magdeburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.44 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 62%.
Last 66 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Current Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 21W 17D 28L in their last 66 games (1.21 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 23W 18D 25L in their last 66 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
1. FC Magdeburg's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.36 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Magdeburg's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
1. FC Magdeburg
4
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-5 1. FC Magdeburg.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 61%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (1. FC Magdeburg) and 54% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of 1. FC Magdeburg's games and 61% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 54% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at 1. FC Magdeburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MDCC-Arena, Regular Season - 33, as 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth drew 0-0 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.66 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.26 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg fell 1.7 short of their projected output. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.90 / defence 1.21, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 46% | Draw 25% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 29%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 58%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.21 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.