Hansa Rostock 1-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 48% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.

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Analysis

SC Paderborn 07 make the trip to Ostseestadion to face Hansa Rostock in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 34). The match kicks off on Sunday 19 May 2024 at 15:30 UK time.

Form

Hansa Rostock (all games): 3W 0D 7L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Hansa Rostock's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

SC Paderborn 07 away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, SC Paderborn 07 have the stronger record — 3 wins to Hansa Rostock's 0, with 2 draws.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Dec 2023, ended Hansa Rostock 0–3 SC Paderborn 07 — a SC Paderborn 07 win.

SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading

Hansa Rostock half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 39% versus SC Paderborn 07 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 48% | SC Paderborn 07 72%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.35 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.832 / defence 1.158 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.129 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.383. Data: built from Hansa Rostock's last 67 games and SC Paderborn 07's last 67.

Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 28% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 48%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 3.53 | Draw 4.22 | SC Paderborn 07 2.08. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.35 / 1.81) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (SC Paderborn 07 3 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hansa Rostock's last 10 home games and SC Paderborn 07's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hansa Rostock 50% (last 10 home games) | SC Paderborn 07 70% (last 10 away games).

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