Saint Etienne 1-1 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Saint Etienne face Rodez.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Saint Etienne and Rodez meet at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2 (matchday 37). This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Current Form
Saint Etienne's record over their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Saint Etienne's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Rodez have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Rodez have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.30 for Saint Etienne, 1.80 for Rodez — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Saint Etienne, 2 for Rodez and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Saint Etienne 1–2 Rodez — a Rodez win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Rodez half-time and goal-timing data (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 47% versus Rodez 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 45% | Rodez 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.42 xG and Rodez 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.057 / defence 0.743 | Rodez attack 1.165 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.146. Saint Etienne have a tight defence (rating 0.743), which is pulling Rodez's projected output down. Data: built from Saint Etienne's last 74 games and Rodez's last 73.
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 46% | Draw 28% | Rodez 26%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.15 | Draw 3.61 | Rodez 3.86. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Saint Etienne are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Saint Etienne 40% (last 10 home games) | Rodez 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 37 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 46% | Draw 28% | Rodez 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Saint Etienne 1.42 / Rodez 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.057 / def 0.743 | Rodez attack 1.165 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Rodez xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Rodez FAQs
What time does Saint Etienne vs Rodez kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Rodez kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 10 May 2024 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Rodez?
Saint Etienne 1 - 1 Rodez.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Rodez part of?
Saint Etienne vs Rodez is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 37) (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 46% chance of winning, Rodez a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Saint Etienne and Rodez will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Saint Etienne vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 1.06x the league average against Rodez's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (1.17x) against Saint Etienne's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from Saint Etienne's last 74 games and Rodez's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
46%
2.15
28%
3.61
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.41
0.99
Rodez xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
6%
15.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Saint Etienne vs Rodez Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 0.99 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 73 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 34W 18D 21L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Rodez's form line: 25W 24D 24L from 73 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Saint Etienne against 1.36 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 1.83 PPG from their last 36 home games (20W 6D 10L).
On the road, Rodez have gone 12W 11D 13L from their last 36 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.33 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Current Season
Rodez
Current Season
Saint Etienne (Home) vs Rodez (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Saint Etienne
Current Season
Rodez
Current Season
❓ Saint Etienne vs Rodez Form FAQs
What form are Saint Etienne and Rodez in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 34W 18D 21L in their last 73 games (1.64 PPG), while Rodez have gone 25W 24D 24L in their last 73 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Rodez away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.83 PPG; Rodez away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Rodez in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Saint Etienne and Rodez, the earliest from November 2022. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 2, Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won Saint Etienne 4-0 Rodez on 16 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 3W 2D 1L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Saint Etienne
3
Draws
3
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Saint Etienne vs Rodez H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Rodez?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Saint Etienne have won 3, Rodez have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Rodez last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Saint Etienne 2-0 Rodez.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Saint Etienne see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 39%, Rodez 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Saint Etienne) and 47% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Rodez in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Rodez Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Saint Etienne and Rodez matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 56% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Saint Etienne and Rodez matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 47% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Rodez matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 61% of Rodez's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Saint Etienne and Rodez share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 37, as Saint Etienne and Rodez drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.42 xG and Rodez 0.99 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.06 / defence 0.74 against Rodez attack 1.17 / defence 1.09, drawn from 74/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 46% | Draw 28% | Rodez 26%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 45%, Rodez 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Rodez's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.64 PPG, Rodez 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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