Saint Etienne 0-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Paris FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Saint Etienne host Paris FC at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2 (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 4 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Saint Etienne have gone 7W 3D 0L — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Saint Etienne's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Paris FC — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Paris FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Saint Etienne carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Saint Etienne have won 1, Paris FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Apr 2023, ended Saint Etienne 4–2 Paris FC — a Saint Etienne win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Saint Etienne in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Paris FC in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 56% versus Paris FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 48% | Paris FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.46 xG and Paris FC 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.954 / defence 0.708 | Paris FC attack 1.055 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.101. Saint Etienne have a tight defence (rating 0.708), which is pulling Paris FC's projected output down. Data: built from Saint Etienne's last 50 games and Paris FC's last 50.
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 51% | Draw 28% | Paris FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 1.94 | Draw 3.57 | Paris FC 4.88. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Saint Etienne 40% (last 10 home games) | Paris FC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 13 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 51% | Draw 28% | Paris FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Saint Etienne 1.46 / Paris FC 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.954 / def 0.708 | Paris FC attack 1.055 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Paris FC xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Paris FC FAQs
What time does Saint Etienne vs Paris FC kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Paris FC kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Paris FC?
Saint Etienne 0 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Paris FC part of?
Saint Etienne vs Paris FC is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 13) (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 51% chance of winning, Paris FC a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Saint Etienne and Paris FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Saint Etienne vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (0.95) and Paris FC's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Saint Etienne's last 50 games and Paris FC's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
51%
1.94
28%
3.57
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.28
0.82
Paris FC xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
5%
20.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.3 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Saint Etienne vs Paris FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 0.82 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Saint Etienne's recent record stands at 22W 14D 14L from 50 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Paris FC, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 20L across 50 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 1.60 PPG, Paris FC on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Saint Etienne have managed 13W 6D 6L from their last 25 home games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Paris FC's away record stands at 8W 8D 9L across their last 25 away games, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.18 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
Saint Etienne (Home) vs Paris FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Saint Etienne
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Saint Etienne vs Paris FC Form FAQs
What form are Saint Etienne and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 22W 14D 14L in their last 50 games (1.60 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 18W 12D 20L in their last 50 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Paris FC away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.80 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Paris FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
2
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Saint Etienne vs Paris FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Paris FC?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Saint Etienne have won 1, Paris FC have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Paris FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 March 2024: Paris FC 0-0 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Saint Etienne see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 40%, Paris FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Saint Etienne) and 40% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Paris FC in 32%; Paris FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Paris FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Saint Etienne and Paris FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 52% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Saint Etienne and Paris FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 40% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Paris FC defy the odds to beat Saint Etienne 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Saint Etienne 0-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.46 xG and Paris FC 0.82 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Saint Etienne fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.95 / defence 0.71 against Paris FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.20, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 51% | Draw 28% | Paris FC 20%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Paris FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 48%, Paris FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Paris FC's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.60 PPG, Paris FC 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Paris FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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