Quevilly 3-1 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rodez at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Quevilly vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Robert Diochon plays host to Quevilly versus Rodez in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Quevilly have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly's form when playing at home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 games at Stade Robert Diochon this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rodez (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Rodez are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Quevilly have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rodez in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Quevilly, 2 for Rodez and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Rodez winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Quevilly goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 51% versus Rodez 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 49% | Rodez 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.27 xG and Rodez 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.849 / defence 1.272 | Rodez attack 1.120 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.103. Data: 50 Quevilly games / 49 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 31% | Draw 25% | Rodez 44%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Rodez 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rodez at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 60% | Rodez 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 31% | Draw 25% | Rodez 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Quevilly 1.27 / Rodez 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.849 / def 1.272 | Rodez attack 1.120 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Rodez (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Rodez xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Rodez kick off?
Quevilly vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Rodez?
Quevilly 3 - 1 Rodez.
Where is Quevilly vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Rodez part of?
Quevilly vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 31% chance of winning, Rodez a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Quevilly and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Rodez?
Record (4 meetings): Quevilly 1W | Draws 1 | Rodez 2W.
What form are Quevilly and Rodez in?
Quevilly (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Rodez (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Quevilly's attack at 0.85x the league average against Rodez's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (1.12x) against Quevilly's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 50/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
31%
3.27
25%
3.95
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.84
1.57
Rodez xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
6%
15.73
12%
8.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.57 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Quevilly come into this having played 49 games, going 13W 17D 19L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.27 PPG from 49 outings (15W 17D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Quevilly against 1.27 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Quevilly's home form reads 6W 10D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 1.25 points per game from 24 outings (7W 9D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Quevilly are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.22 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Rodez in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 13W 17D 19L in their last 49 games (1.14 PPG), while Rodez have gone 15W 17D 17L in their last 49 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Rodez away?
Rodez's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.17 PPG; Rodez away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rodez won 3-0 on 30 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Quevilly have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Quevilly
2
Draws
2
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Rodez?
From 6 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 2, Rodez have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Rodez 3-3 Quevilly.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rodez see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 67%, Rodez 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Quevilly) and 42% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Rodez in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Rodez?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Quevilly's games and 50% of Rodez's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Quevilly vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Quevilly's recent games and 42% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Rodez tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Rodez in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Quevilly cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Rodez.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat Rodez 3-1 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.27 xG and Rodez 1.57 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Quevilly beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.85 / defence 1.27 against Rodez attack 1.12 / defence 1.18, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 31% | Draw 25% | Rodez 44%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Quevilly win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 49%, Rodez 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Rodez's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.14 PPG, Rodez 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Quevilly win broke the near-deadlock. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Rodez (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.