Auxerre 5-2 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 14 as Auxerre welcome Saint Etienne to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 November 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Auxerre have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season.
Saint Etienne — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Auxerre at 1.80 PPG versus Saint Etienne's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Auxerre register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Saint Etienne in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Auxerre, 0 for Saint Etienne and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Auxerre in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Saint Etienne in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 59% versus Saint Etienne 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 51% | Saint Etienne 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 0.91 xG and Saint Etienne 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.945 / defence 0.981 | Saint Etienne attack 1.034 / defence 0.748. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.119. Saint Etienne's defence strength of 0.748 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 13 Auxerre games / 51 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 29% | Draw 31% | Saint Etienne 40%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Saint Etienne 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Saint Etienne are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Auxerre 60% | Saint Etienne 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 29% | Draw 31% | Saint Etienne 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Auxerre 0.91 / Saint Etienne 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.945 / def 0.981 | Saint Etienne attack 1.034 / def 0.748 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Saint Etienne xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Auxerre vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Saint Etienne?
Auxerre 5 - 2 Saint Etienne.
Where is Auxerre vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Saint Etienne part of?
Auxerre vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 29% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Auxerre and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Saint Etienne?
Record (2 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 2 | Saint Etienne 0W.
What form are Auxerre and Saint Etienne in?
Auxerre (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Saint Etienne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
29%
3.47
31%
3.24
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.05
1.14
Saint Etienne xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
9%
10.78
16%
6.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 14.6 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.14 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Auxerre have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 14W 15D 22L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne's form line: 22W 14D 15L from 51 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Saint Etienne are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Auxerre.
Venue Form
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 1.20 PPG from 25 outings (7W 9D 9L).
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 9W 8D 8L from 25 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.49 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 14W 15D 22L in their last 51 games (1.12 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 22W 14D 15L in their last 51 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Saint Etienne away?
Saint Etienne's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.20 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2023, when Auxerre won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Auxerre's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Auxerre
3
Draws
2
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2025, when Auxerre 1-1 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 52%, Saint Etienne 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Auxerre) and 60% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Auxerre have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Saint Etienne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Auxerre's games and 72% of Saint Etienne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Auxerre vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Auxerre's recent games and 60% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Auxerre run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Saint Etienne 5-2 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 0.91 xG and Saint Etienne 1.14 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 4.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Saint Etienne outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Saint Etienne attack 1.03 / defence 0.75, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 29% | Draw 31% | Saint Etienne 40%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 51%, Saint Etienne 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Auxerre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.