PAU 1-2 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PAU face Bastia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bastia make the trip to Stade Nouste Camp to face PAU in Ligue 2 (matchday 37). The match kicks off on Friday 10 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
PAU have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
PAU's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bastia's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Bastia have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for PAU, 1.60 for Bastia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from PAU's last 10 home games and Bastia's last 10 away games) — PAU have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bastia in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Sep 2023, ended PAU 4–1 Bastia — a PAU win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
PAU goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 54% versus Bastia 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 47% | Bastia 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.55 xG and Bastia 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.138 / defence 1.175 | Bastia attack 1.128 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.146. Data: built from PAU's last 74 games and Bastia's last 74.
Result probabilities: PAU 38% | Draw 25% | Bastia 37%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.61 | Draw 4.04 | Bastia 2.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.55 / 1.52) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAU are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (PAU's last 10 home games and Bastia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAU 60% (last 10 home games) | Bastia 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 37 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 38% | Draw 25% | Bastia 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG PAU 1.55 / Bastia 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.138 / def 1.175 | Bastia attack 1.128 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: PAU (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Bastia xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAU vs Bastia FAQs
What time does PAU vs Bastia kick off?
PAU vs Bastia kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 10 May 2024 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Bastia?
PAU 1 - 2 Bastia.
Where is PAU vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Bastia part of?
PAU vs Bastia is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 37) (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 38% chance of winning, Bastia a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both PAU and Bastia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will PAU vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAU's attack at 1.14x the league average against Bastia's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (1.13x) against PAU's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from PAU's last 74 games and Bastia's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
38%
2.61
25%
4.04
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
PAU xG
Total xG
3.07
1.52
Bastia xG
2.61
38%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
8%
11.90
8%
12.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.9 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAU vs Bastia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are PAU and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for PAU and 1.52 for Bastia, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAU come into this having played 74 games, going 25W 23D 26L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Bastia sit at 1.45 PPG from 74 outings (30W 17D 27L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for PAU against 1.45 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
PAU's home form reads 13W 12D 12L across their last 37 home games, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Bastia have taken 1.14 points per game from their last 37 away games (11W 9D 17L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAU are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.26 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
PAU (Home) vs Bastia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAU
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
❓ PAU vs Bastia Form FAQs
What form are PAU and Bastia in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 25W 23D 26L in their last 74 games (1.32 PPG), while Bastia have gone 30W 17D 27L in their last 74 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Bastia away?
PAU's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.38 PPG; Bastia away: 1.14 PPG.
Have PAU or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Bastia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 6 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 4 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bastia won PAU 2-6 Bastia on 20 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
PAU
5
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ PAU vs Bastia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Bastia?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, PAU have won 2, Bastia have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Bastia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 March 2026: PAU 2-2 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 49%, Bastia 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (PAU) and 43% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: PAU have failed to score in 27% of games; Bastia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PAU vs Bastia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PAU and Bastia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of PAU's recent matches and 49% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PAU and Bastia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of PAU's recent games and 43% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Bastia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of PAU's recent matches and 70% of Bastia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bastia defy the odds to beat PAU 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat PAU 1-2 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 37, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.55 xG and Bastia 1.52 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.14 / defence 1.18 against Bastia attack 1.13 / defence 1.11, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 38% | Draw 25% | Bastia 37%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bastia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 47%, Bastia 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Bastia's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.32 PPG, Bastia 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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