Caen 0-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Caen at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Caen vs Guingamp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Guingamp make the trip to Stade Michel d'Ornano to face Caen in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 September 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Caen (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Caen have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Caen have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stade Michel d'Ornano — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Guingamp have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Caen, 1.70 for Guingamp — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Caen have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Guingamp in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Caen lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 2–1 with Caen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Caen — key trading statistics (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Guingamp — key trading statistics (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 58% versus Guingamp 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 53% | Guingamp 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.82 xG and Guingamp 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 1.249 / defence 1.095 | Guingamp attack 1.142 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.050. Data: 45 Caen games / 46 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 49% | Draw 23% | Guingamp 28%. Fair-value odds: Caen 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Guingamp 3.57. Caen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Caen are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Caen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Caen 80% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 49% | Draw 23% | Guingamp 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Caen 1.82 / Guingamp 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 1.249 / def 1.095 | Guingamp attack 1.142 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Caen (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Caen xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Guingamp xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Guingamp kick off?
Caen vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Guingamp?
Caen 0 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Caen vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Guingamp part of?
Caen vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 49% chance of winning, Guingamp a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Caen and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Guingamp?
Record (4 meetings): Caen 3W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 1W.
What form are Caen and Guingamp in?
Caen (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Guingamp (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Caen's attack rating (1.25) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (1.14x) against Caen's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
49%
2.03
23%
4.36
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Caen xG
Total xG
3.13
1.31
Guingamp xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
16%
6.17
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
4%
22.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Caen and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Caen and 1.31 for Guingamp, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, Caen have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 20W 11D 14L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Caen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guingamp's form line: 17W 12D 16L from 45 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Caen against 1.40 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Caen have posted 1.96 PPG from 23 outings (13W 6D 4L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 9W 7D 7L from 23 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Caen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Caen are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.33 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Early Season
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 20W 11D 14L in their last 45 games (1.58 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 17W 12D 16L in their last 45 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Guingamp away?
Caen's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.96 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Caen or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Caen have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Guingamp in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Guingamp have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Caen won 4-1 on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Caen have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Caen
0
Draws
5
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Guingamp?
From 8 meetings on record, Caen have won 3, Guingamp have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2025, when Caen 0-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 61%, Guingamp 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Caen) and 44% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Guingamp in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Caen's games and 61% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Caen vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Caen's recent games and 44% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Guingamp tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Guingamp defy the odds to beat Caen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Caen 0-1 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.82 xG and Guingamp 1.31 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Caen fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 1.25 / defence 1.09 against Guingamp attack 1.14 / defence 1.18, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 49% | Draw 23% | Guingamp 28%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 53%, Guingamp 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Guingamp's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.58 PPG, Guingamp 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.