Annecy 2-2 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Annecy face Paris FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Paris FC make the trip to Parc des Sports to face Annecy in Ligue 2 (matchday 9). The match kicks off on Saturday 30 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Annecy (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Annecy at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Paris FC have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Paris FC have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 2 Jun 2023, ended Annecy 0–1 Paris FC — a Paris FC win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Paris FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 39% versus Paris FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 46% | Paris FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.46 xG and Paris FC 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.939 / defence 1.000 | Paris FC attack 0.772 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.050. Paris FC's defence rating of 1.255 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Annecy's projected output up. Paris FC's attack rating of 0.772 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from Annecy's last 46 games and Paris FC's last 46.
Result probabilities: Annecy 52% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 1.91 | Draw 3.75 | Paris FC 4.79. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Annecy 50% (last 10 home games) | Paris FC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 9 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 52% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Annecy 1.46 / Paris FC 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.939 / def 1.000 | Paris FC attack 0.772 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Annecy (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Paris FC xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Annecy vs Paris FC FAQs
What time does Annecy vs Paris FC kick off?
Annecy vs Paris FC kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Paris FC?
Annecy 2 - 2 Paris FC.
Where is Annecy vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Paris FC part of?
Annecy vs Paris FC is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 9) (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 52% chance of winning, Paris FC a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Annecy and Paris FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Annecy vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Annecy's attack rating (0.94) and Paris FC's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (0.77x) against Annecy's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from Annecy's last 46 games and Paris FC's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.75
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.27
0.81
Paris FC xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
5%
20.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.2 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Annecy vs Paris FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Annecy and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Annecy and 0.81 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Annecy have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 13W 16D 17L record — D-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Paris FC's form line: 17W 10D 19L from 46 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Annecy against 1.33 for Paris FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Annecy have posted 1.57 PPG from their last 23 home games (10W 6D 7L).
On the road, Paris FC have gone 7W 7D 9L from their last 23 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Annecy are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.13 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
Annecy (Home) vs Paris FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Annecy
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Annecy vs Paris FC Form FAQs
What form are Annecy and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 13W 16D 17L in their last 46 games (1.20 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 17W 10D 19L in their last 46 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Paris FC away?
Annecy's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.57 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Annecy or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Paris FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 28 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Paris FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Annecy
2
Draws
3
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Annecy vs Paris FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Paris FC?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Annecy have won 1, Paris FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Paris FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2025: Annecy 2-3 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 35%, Paris FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Annecy and 35% for Paris FC.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Paris FC in 35%; Annecy have failed to score in 35% of games; Paris FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Annecy vs Paris FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Annecy and Paris FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Annecy's recent matches and 48% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Annecy and Paris FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Annecy's recent games and 35% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Paris FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Annecy's recent matches and 48% of Paris FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy and Paris FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy and Paris FC finished level at 2-2 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.46 xG and Paris FC 0.81 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Paris FC outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Paris FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.25, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 52% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 21%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 46%, Paris FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Paris FC's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.20 PPG, Paris FC 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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