Guingamp 2-2 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Guingamp face Grenoble.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Guingamp welcome Grenoble to Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2 (matchday 10). Kick-off is Saturday 7 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Guingamp stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Grenoble have recorded 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Grenoble away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Guingamp) versus 1.90 (Grenoble). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Guingamp's 30% BTTS rate and Grenoble's 10% (from Guingamp's last 10 home games and Grenoble's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Guingamp have won 1, Grenoble 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Jun 2023, ended Guingamp 2–0 Grenoble — a Guingamp win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Grenoble trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 51% versus Grenoble 26%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Guingamp 47% | Grenoble 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.02 xG and Grenoble 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.147 / defence 0.787 | Grenoble attack 0.860 / defence 0.718. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 0.997. Grenoble bring a tight defence (rating 0.718, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Guingamp's projected output down. Guingamp have a tight defence (rating 0.787), which is pulling Grenoble's projected output down. Data: built from Guingamp's last 47 games and Grenoble's last 47.
Result probabilities: Guingamp 43% | Draw 33% | Grenoble 24%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.33 | Draw 3.00 | Grenoble 4.22. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS Yes probability 31% | Total xG 1.70. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.70 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Grenoble's lower xG of 0.68 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.70 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Guingamp's last 10 home games and Grenoble's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Guingamp 30% (last 10 home games) | Grenoble 10% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 10 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 43% | Draw 33% | Grenoble 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% (Under 76%) | BTTS Yes 31% (No 69%) | xG Guingamp 1.02 / Grenoble 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.147 / def 0.787 | Grenoble attack 0.860 / def 0.718 | league avg home 1.239 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Grenoble xG
31%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Guingamp vs Grenoble FAQs
What time does Guingamp vs Grenoble kick off?
Guingamp vs Grenoble kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Guingamp 2 - 2 Grenoble.
Where is Guingamp vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Grenoble part of?
Guingamp vs Grenoble is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 10) (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 43% chance of winning, Grenoble a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Guingamp and Grenoble will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (69%).
Will Guingamp vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (76%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.15) and Grenoble's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Grenoble's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Guingamp's last 47 games and Grenoble's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.1%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
43%
2.33
33%
3.00
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Guingamp xG
Total xG
1.70
0.68
Grenoble xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.19
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
9%
11.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.3 | 12.4 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 12.6 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Guingamp vs Grenoble Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.0%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.68 for Grenoble, a combined total of 1.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 19W 12D 16L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Grenoble's form line: 19W 13D 15L from 47 games, 1.49 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.47 PPG, Grenoble on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.39 PPG from their last 23 home games (9W 5D 9L).
On the road, Grenoble have gone 7W 6D 10L from their last 23 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 0.89 scored and 0.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grenoble in 26%.
Defensively: Grenoble in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Grenoble
Blended
Guingamp (Home) vs Grenoble (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Guingamp
Blended
Grenoble
Blended
❓ Guingamp vs Grenoble Form FAQs
What form are Guingamp and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 19W 12D 16L in their last 47 games (1.47 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 19W 13D 15L in their last 47 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Grenoble away?
Guingamp's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.39 PPG; Grenoble away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Grenoble in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 10 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Nov 2024, when Guingamp won Guingamp 3-0 Grenoble.
Guingamp's record when hosting Grenoble specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Guingamp
7
Draws
1
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Guingamp vs Grenoble H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Grenoble?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Guingamp have won 2, Grenoble have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Grenoble last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 April 2026: Guingamp 1-1 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Grenoble?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Guingamp 44% BTTS, Grenoble 17%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Guingamp) and 30% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Grenoble in 44%; Guingamp have failed to score in 35% of games; Grenoble in 61%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Guingamp vs Grenoble Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Guingamp and Grenoble matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Guingamp's recent matches and 17% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Guingamp and Grenoble matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Guingamp's recent games and 30% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Grenoble matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Guingamp's recent matches and 48% of Grenoble's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp and Grenoble share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 10, as Guingamp and Grenoble drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.02 xG and Grenoble 0.68 xG, a combined 1.70. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Grenoble outscored their 0.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.15 / defence 0.79 against Grenoble attack 0.86 / defence 0.72, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 43% | Draw 33% | Grenoble 24%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 47%, Grenoble 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Grenoble's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.47 PPG, Grenoble 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Grenoble (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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