Bordeaux 2-4 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bordeaux at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bordeaux vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Auxerre make the trip to Stade Matmut-Atlantique to face Bordeaux in Ligue 2 (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Bordeaux have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Bordeaux's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Bordeaux are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Auxerre's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Auxerre away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Bordeaux. A 1.30 PPG lead over Auxerre (2.00 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Bordeaux goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Auxerre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bordeaux 34% versus Auxerre 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 39% | Auxerre 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.69 xG and Auxerre 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.110 / defence 0.731 | Auxerre attack 1.338 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 0.925. Auxerre's defence rating of 1.231 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bordeaux's projected output up. Auxerre have an above-average attack rating of 1.338, which lifts their away xG to 0.91. Bordeaux have a tight defence (rating 0.731), which is pulling Auxerre's projected output down. Data: built from Bordeaux's last 41 games and Auxerre's last 4.
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 56% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 20%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 1.79 | Draw 4.15 | Auxerre 4.98. The model has a clear lean to Bordeaux (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bordeaux are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bordeaux 30% (last 10 home games) | Auxerre 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 5 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 56% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Bordeaux 1.69 / Auxerre 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.110 / def 0.731 | Auxerre attack 1.338 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.234 / away 0.925 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Auxerre xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bordeaux vs Auxerre FAQs
What time does Bordeaux vs Auxerre kick off?
Bordeaux vs Auxerre kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Auxerre?
Bordeaux 2 - 4 Auxerre.
Where is Bordeaux vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Auxerre part of?
Bordeaux vs Auxerre is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 5) (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 56% chance of winning, Auxerre a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bordeaux and Auxerre will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Bordeaux vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bordeaux's attack at 1.11x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (1.34x) against Bordeaux's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from Bordeaux's last 41 games and Auxerre's last 4 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
56%
1.79
24%
4.15
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
2.59
0.91
Auxerre xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
4%
26.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.4 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bordeaux vs Auxerre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Bordeaux and 0.91 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Bordeaux have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 22W 10D 9L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Auxerre's form line: 9W 13D 19L from 41 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Bordeaux are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Auxerre.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bordeaux have posted 2.30 PPG from their last 20 home games (14W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.85 PPG overall — Bordeaux are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 4W 5D 11L from their last 20 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bordeaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bordeaux are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 0.98 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Early Season
Auxerre
Early Season
Bordeaux (Home) vs Auxerre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bordeaux
Early Season
Auxerre
Early Season
❓ Bordeaux vs Auxerre Form FAQs
What form are Bordeaux and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 22W 10D 9L in their last 41 games (1.85 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 9W 13D 19L in their last 41 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Auxerre away?
Bordeaux's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 2.30 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Bordeaux or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Auxerre in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 15 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bordeaux
0
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Bordeaux vs Auxerre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Auxerre?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Bordeaux have won 0, Auxerre have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Auxerre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 January 2024: Auxerre 3-1 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 35%, Auxerre 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Bordeaux) and 55% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Auxerre in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bordeaux vs Auxerre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bordeaux and Auxerre matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 60% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bordeaux and Auxerre matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Bordeaux's recent games and 55% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Auxerre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 75% of Auxerre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Bordeaux.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Bordeaux 2-4 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.69 xG and Auxerre 0.91 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Auxerre outscored their 0.91 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.11 / defence 0.73 against Auxerre attack 1.34 / defence 1.23, drawn from 41/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 56% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 20%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Auxerre win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 39%, Auxerre 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Auxerre's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bordeaux arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Auxerre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bordeaux (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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