Auxerre 0-0 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grenoble at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Auxerre face Grenoble.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Auxerre welcome Grenoble to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 2 (matchday 4). Kick-off is Saturday 26 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Auxerre have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Auxerre have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Auxerre are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Grenoble stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Grenoble have posted 3W 0D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Auxerre at 0.70 PPG versus Grenoble's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Auxerre, 0 for Grenoble and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Jan 2022, ended Auxerre 1–0 Grenoble — a Auxerre win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Auxerre trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Grenoble trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 15% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 58% versus Grenoble 24%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Auxerre 49% | Grenoble 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 0.72 xG and Grenoble 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.706 / defence 1.141 | Grenoble attack 0.890 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 0.979. Auxerre's attack rating of 0.706 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Data: built from Auxerre's last 3 games and Grenoble's last 41.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 26% | Draw 33% | Grenoble 41%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.90 | Draw 2.99 | Grenoble 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS Yes probability 32% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Auxerre's lower xG of 0.72 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Grenoble at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grenoble offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.71 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Auxerre's last 10 home games and Grenoble's last 10 away games) averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 68%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Auxerre 60% (last 10 home games) | Grenoble 10% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 4 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 26% | Draw 33% | Grenoble 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% (Under 75%) | BTTS Yes 32% (No 68%) | xG Auxerre 0.72 / Grenoble 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.706 / def 1.141 | Grenoble attack 0.890 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.215 / away 0.979 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Grenoble xG
32%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Auxerre vs Grenoble FAQs
What time does Auxerre vs Grenoble kick off?
Auxerre vs Grenoble kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Grenoble?
Auxerre 0 - 0 Grenoble.
Where is Auxerre vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Grenoble part of?
Auxerre vs Grenoble is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 4) (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 26% chance of winning, Grenoble a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Auxerre and Grenoble will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (68%).
Will Auxerre vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (75%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (0.71) and Grenoble's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Grenoble's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Auxerre's last 3 games and Grenoble's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
26%
3.90
33%
2.99
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.9%
Away win
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Auxerre xG
Total xG
1.71
0.99
Grenoble xG
3.90
26%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.10
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
49%
2.05
Win to Nil
9%
10.53
20%
5.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.0 | 17.9 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Auxerre vs Grenoble Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.7%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.99 for Grenoble, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Auxerre come into this having played 41 games, going 9W 12D 20L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, Grenoble sit at 1.41 PPG from 41 outings (16W 10D 15L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Grenoble carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Auxerre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Auxerre's home form reads 5W 7D 8L across their last 20 home games, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Grenoble have taken 1.10 points per game from their last 20 away games (6W 4D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 0.88 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grenoble in 24%.
Defensively: Grenoble in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Grenoble
Early Season
Auxerre (Home) vs Grenoble (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Auxerre
Early Season
Grenoble
Early Season
❓ Auxerre vs Grenoble Form FAQs
What form are Auxerre and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 9W 12D 20L in their last 41 games (0.95 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 16W 10D 15L in their last 41 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Grenoble away?
Auxerre's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.10 PPG; Grenoble away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Grenoble in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 23 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Aug 2021, when Auxerre won Auxerre 3-0 Grenoble.
Auxerre's record when hosting Grenoble specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Auxerre
2
Draws
0
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Auxerre vs Grenoble H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Grenoble?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Auxerre have won 2, Grenoble have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Grenoble last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 January 2024: Grenoble 1-1 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Grenoble?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Auxerre 55% BTTS, Grenoble 15%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Auxerre and 30% for Grenoble.
On the defensive side: Grenoble in 40%; Auxerre have failed to score in 30% of games; Grenoble in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Auxerre vs Grenoble Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Auxerre and Grenoble matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Auxerre's recent matches and 15% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Auxerre and Grenoble matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Auxerre's recent games and 30% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Grenoble matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Auxerre's recent matches and 50% of Grenoble's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Auxerre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 4, as Auxerre and Grenoble drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 0.72 xG and Grenoble 0.99 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Grenoble landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.71 / defence 1.14 against Grenoble attack 0.89 / defence 0.84, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 26% | Draw 33% | Grenoble 41%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 49%, Grenoble 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Grenoble's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Grenoble arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Grenoble (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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