Auxerre 2-2 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Auxerre face PAU.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Auxerre host PAU at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 2 (matchday 6). Kick-off is Saturday 16 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Auxerre — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Auxerre's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, PAU have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
PAU's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Auxerre at 1.00 PPG versus PAU's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Auxerre, 0 for PAU and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Apr 2022, ended Auxerre 4–1 PAU — a Auxerre win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Auxerre in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
PAU in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 58% versus PAU 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 49% | PAU 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.05 xG and PAU 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.637 / defence 1.025 | PAU attack 0.876 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 0.992. Auxerre's attack rating of 0.637 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. PAU's defence rating of 1.291 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Auxerre's projected output up. Data: built from Auxerre's last 5 games and PAU's last 43.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 38% | Draw 32% | PAU 30%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.61 | Draw 3.13 | PAU 3.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 69% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Auxerre 60% (last 10 home games) | PAU 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 6 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 38% | Draw 32% | PAU 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Auxerre 1.05 / PAU 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.637 / def 1.025 | PAU attack 0.876 / def 1.291 | league avg home 1.282 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.89
PAU xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Auxerre vs PAU FAQs
What time does Auxerre vs PAU kick off?
Auxerre vs PAU kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs PAU?
Auxerre 2 - 2 PAU.
Where is Auxerre vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs PAU part of?
Auxerre vs PAU is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 6) (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 38% chance of winning, PAU a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Auxerre and PAU will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Auxerre vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against PAU's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Auxerre's last 5 games and PAU's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
38%
2.61
32%
3.13
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Auxerre xG
Total xG
1.95
0.89
PAU xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
10%
9.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 12.7 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Auxerre vs PAU Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Auxerre and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.89 for PAU, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Auxerre come into this having played 43 games, going 10W 13D 20L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.26 PPG from 43 outings (14W 12D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.00 PPG, PAU on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Auxerre's home form reads 5W 8D 8L across their last 21 home games, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 1.10 points per game from their last 21 away games (6W 5D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.09 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
PAU
Early Season
Auxerre (Home) vs PAU (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Auxerre
Early Season
PAU
Early Season
❓ Auxerre vs PAU Form FAQs
What form are Auxerre and PAU in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 10W 13D 20L in their last 43 games (1.00 PPG), while PAU have gone 14W 12D 17L in their last 43 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or PAU away?
Auxerre's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.10 PPG; PAU away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 3 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Nov 2021, when Auxerre won Auxerre 4-1 PAU.
Auxerre's record when hosting PAU specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Auxerre
2
Draws
0
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Auxerre vs PAU H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and PAU?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Auxerre have won 2, PAU have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and PAU last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 February 2024: PAU 2-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and PAU?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 52%, PAU 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Auxerre) and 33% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Auxerre have failed to score in 33% of games; PAU in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Auxerre vs PAU Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Auxerre and PAU matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Auxerre's recent matches and 48% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Auxerre and PAU matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Auxerre's recent games and 33% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and PAU matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Auxerre's recent matches and 76% of PAU's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre and PAU share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre and PAU finished level at 2-2 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.05 xG and PAU 0.89 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAU outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.64 / defence 1.02 against PAU attack 0.88 / defence 1.29, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 38% | Draw 32% | PAU 30%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 49%, PAU 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
PAU's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.00 PPG, PAU 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm. PAU (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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