Bastia 1-2 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bastia face Caen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bastia host Caen at Stade Armand-Césari in Ligue 2 (matchday 21). Kick-off is Tuesday 23 January 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bastia stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Bastia have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bastia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Caen have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Caen's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bastia at 1.30 PPG versus Caen's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Bastia have won 1, Caen 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2023, ended Bastia 0–1 Caen — a Caen win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bastia trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Caen trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 41% versus Caen 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 40% | Caen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.41 xG and Caen 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.983 / defence 0.815 | Caen attack 1.022 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.134. Data: built from Bastia's last 58 games and Caen's last 58.
Result probabilities: Bastia 48% | Draw 27% | Caen 25%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.09 | Draw 3.70 | Caen 3.97. Bastia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bastia 40% (last 10 home games) | Caen 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 21 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 January 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 48% | Draw 27% | Caen 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Bastia 1.41 / Caen 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.983 / def 0.815 | Caen attack 1.022 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Bastia (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Caen xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bastia vs Caen FAQs
What time does Bastia vs Caen kick off?
Bastia vs Caen kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 23 January 2024 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Caen?
Bastia 1 - 2 Caen.
Where is Bastia vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Caen part of?
Bastia vs Caen is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 21) (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 48% chance of winning, Caen a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bastia and Caen will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Bastia vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bastia's attack rating (0.98) and Caen's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Caen's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bastia's last 58 games and Caen's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.70
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.36
0.94
Caen xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
6%
16.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.6 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bastia vs Caen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Bastia and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Bastia and 0.94 for Caen, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Bastia have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 23W 15D 20L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Caen's form line: 24W 16D 18L from 58 games, 1.52 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.45 PPG, Caen on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bastia have posted 1.90 PPG from their last 29 home games (16W 7D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Bastia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Caen have gone 8W 8D 13L from their last 29 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Caen's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bastia are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.38 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Caen
Blended
Bastia (Home) vs Caen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bastia
Blended
Caen
Blended
❓ Bastia vs Caen Form FAQs
What form are Bastia and Caen in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 23W 15D 20L in their last 58 games (1.45 PPG), while Caen have gone 24W 16D 18L in their last 58 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Caen away?
Bastia's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.90 PPG; Caen away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Bastia or Caen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Caen in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 10 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Bastia's record when hosting Caen specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Bastia
1
Draws
5
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Bastia vs Caen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Caen?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Bastia have won 2, Caen have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bastia and Caen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2025: Bastia 2-1 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Caen?
Caen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bastia see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 38%, Caen 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bastia) and 52% (Caen).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 28% of games; Caen in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bastia vs Caen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bastia and Caen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Bastia's recent matches and 59% of Caen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bastia and Caen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bastia's recent games and 52% of Caen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Caen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Bastia's recent matches and 69% of Caen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Caen defy the odds to beat Bastia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen beat Bastia 1-2 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.41 xG and Caen 0.94 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Caen outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.98 / defence 0.81 against Caen attack 1.02 / defence 1.18, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 48% | Draw 27% | Caen 25%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Caen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 40%, Caen 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Caen's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.45 PPG, Caen 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Caen win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Caen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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