PAU 0-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAU at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAU vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Nouste Camp plays host to PAU versus Saint Etienne in Ligue 2 (matchday 21). Kick-off: Tuesday 23 January 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form
PAU (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
PAU at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Saint Etienne's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward PAU. A 0.50 PPG lead over Saint Etienne (1.60 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for PAU, 1 for Saint Etienne and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended PAU 2–1 Saint Etienne — a PAU win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
PAU — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Saint Etienne — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 53% versus Saint Etienne 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 47% | Saint Etienne 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.49 xG and Saint Etienne 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.262 / defence 1.210 | Saint Etienne attack 0.895 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.134. PAU carry an above-average attack rating of 1.262 — their 1.49 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. PAU's defence rating of 1.210 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Saint Etienne's projected output up. Data: built from PAU's last 58 games and Saint Etienne's last 58.
Result probabilities: PAU 43% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 31%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.31 | Draw 3.93 | Saint Etienne 3.20. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAU as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (PAU's last 10 home games and Saint Etienne's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAU 60% (last 10 home games) | Saint Etienne 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 21 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 January 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 43% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG PAU 1.49 / Saint Etienne 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.262 / def 1.210 | Saint Etienne attack 0.895 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: PAU (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Saint Etienne xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAU vs Saint Etienne FAQs
What time does PAU vs Saint Etienne kick off?
PAU vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 23 January 2024 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Saint Etienne?
PAU 0 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is PAU vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Saint Etienne part of?
PAU vs Saint Etienne is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 21) (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 43% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both PAU and Saint Etienne will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will PAU vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates PAU's attack at 1.26x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (0.90x) against PAU's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from PAU's last 58 games and Saint Etienne's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
43%
2.31
25%
3.93
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
PAU xG
Total xG
2.72
1.23
Saint Etienne xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
7%
14.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAU vs Saint Etienne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are PAU and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for PAU and 1.23 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PAU's recent record stands at 20W 18D 20L from 58 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 23W 16D 19L across 58 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for PAU against 1.47 for Saint Etienne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, PAU have managed 11W 9D 8L from their last 28 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 9W 9D 10L across their last 28 away games, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
PAU are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.43 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
PAU (Home) vs Saint Etienne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAU
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ PAU vs Saint Etienne Form FAQs
What form are PAU and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 20W 18D 20L in their last 58 games (1.34 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 23W 16D 19L in their last 58 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Saint Etienne away?
PAU's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.50 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.29 PPG.
Have PAU or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between PAU and Saint Etienne, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Saint Etienne have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won Saint Etienne 6-0 PAU on 28 Oct 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
PAU
1
Draws
4
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ PAU vs Saint Etienne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Saint Etienne?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, PAU have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did PAU and Saint Etienne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: PAU 0-3 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 50%, Saint Etienne 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (PAU) and 57% (Saint Etienne).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PAU vs Saint Etienne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PAU and Saint Etienne matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of PAU's games and 68% of Saint Etienne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are PAU and Saint Etienne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of PAU's recent games and 57% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Saint Etienne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of PAU's recent matches and 64% of Saint Etienne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Saint Etienne defy the odds to beat PAU 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat PAU 0-1 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.49 xG and Saint Etienne 1.23 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PAU fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.26 / defence 1.21 against Saint Etienne attack 0.90 / defence 0.97, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 43% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 31%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Saint Etienne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 47%, Saint Etienne 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.34 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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