Bastia 2-0 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 38%, yet in-form Angers provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bastia vs Angers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Armand-Césari plays host to Bastia versus Angers in Ligue 2 (matchday 20). Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Bastia (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Bastia at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Angers have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Angers away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Angers are 1.00 PPG clear of Bastia over their recent games (2.30 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Angers edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Bastia 0–2 Angers — a Angers win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Bastia half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Angers half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 42% versus Angers 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 40% | Angers 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.41 xG and Angers 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.942 / defence 0.908 | Angers attack 1.275 / defence 1.254. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.149. Angers's defence rating of 1.254 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bastia's projected output up. Angers have an above-average attack rating of 1.275, which lifts their away xG to 1.33. Data: built from Bastia's last 57 games and Angers's last 19.
Result probabilities: Bastia 38% | Draw 27% | Angers 35%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.61 | Draw 3.72 | Angers 2.88. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bastia as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Angers (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bastia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bastia's last 10 home games and Angers's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bastia 50% (last 10 home games) | Angers 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 20 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 38% | Draw 27% | Angers 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Bastia 1.41 / Angers 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.942 / def 0.908 | Angers attack 1.275 / def 1.254 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Bastia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Angers xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bastia vs Angers FAQs
What time does Bastia vs Angers kick off?
Bastia vs Angers kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Angers?
Bastia 2 - 0 Angers.
Where is Bastia vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Angers part of?
Bastia vs Angers is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 20) (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 38% chance of winning, Angers a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bastia and Angers will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bastia vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bastia's attack at 0.94x the league average against Angers's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Angers's attack (1.27x) against Bastia's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from Bastia's last 57 games and Angers's last 19 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
38%
2.61
27%
3.72
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.74
1.33
Angers xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
10%
9.86
8%
11.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bastia vs Angers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Bastia and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Bastia and 1.33 for Angers, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bastia come into this having played 57 games, going 22W 15D 20L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Angers sit at 1.02 PPG from 57 outings (16W 10D 31L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Bastia against 1.02 for Angers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bastia's home form reads 15W 7D 6L across their last 28 home games, a 1.86 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Bastia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Angers have taken 0.71 points per game from their last 28 away games (5W 5D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bastia are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 1.16 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Angers
Blended
Bastia (Home) vs Angers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bastia
Blended
Angers
Blended
❓ Bastia vs Angers Form FAQs
What form are Bastia and Angers in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 22W 15D 20L in their last 57 games (1.42 PPG), while Angers have gone 16W 10D 31L in their last 57 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Angers away?
Bastia's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.86 PPG; Angers away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Bastia or Angers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Angers in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 13 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bastia
0
Draws
1
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Bastia vs Angers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Angers?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Bastia have won 1, Angers have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Angers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 January 2024: Bastia 2-0 Angers.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bastia see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 39%, Angers 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Bastia) and 57% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 29% of games; Angers in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bastia vs Angers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bastia and Angers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Bastia's recent matches and 46% of Angers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bastia and Angers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Bastia's recent games and 57% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Angers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Bastia's recent matches and 82% of Angers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bastia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Angers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Angers 2-0 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.41 xG and Angers 1.33 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Angers landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.94 / defence 0.91 against Angers attack 1.27 / defence 1.25, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 38% | Draw 27% | Angers 35%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 40%, Angers 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Angers's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.42 PPG, Angers 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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