Saint Etienne 1-2 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs PAU encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Geoffroy-Guichard plays host to Saint Etienne versus PAU in Ligue 2 (matchday 15). Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Saint Etienne (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Saint Etienne have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PAU's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Saint Etienne. A 0.70 PPG lead over PAU (2.00 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Saint Etienne, 0 for PAU and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2023, ended Saint Etienne 2–0 PAU — a Saint Etienne win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Saint Etienne — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
PAU — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 55% versus PAU 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 47% | PAU 45%). Note also that PAU surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Saint Etienne recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.35 xG and PAU 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.849 / defence 0.713 | PAU attack 1.086 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.169. PAU's defence rating of 1.213 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Saint Etienne's projected output up. Saint Etienne have a tight defence (rating 0.713), which is pulling PAU's projected output down. Data: built from Saint Etienne's last 52 games and PAU's last 51.
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 47% | Draw 28% | PAU 25%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.12 | Draw 3.60 | PAU 3.98. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — low conviction — though recent form (Saint Etienne's last 10 home games and PAU's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Saint Etienne 30% (last 10 home games) | PAU 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 15 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 47% | Draw 28% | PAU 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Saint Etienne 1.35 / PAU 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.849 / def 0.713 | PAU attack 1.086 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
0.91
PAU xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Saint Etienne vs PAU FAQs
What time does Saint Etienne vs PAU kick off?
Saint Etienne vs PAU kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs PAU?
Saint Etienne 1 - 2 PAU.
Where is Saint Etienne vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs PAU part of?
Saint Etienne vs PAU is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 15) (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 47% chance of winning, PAU a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Saint Etienne and PAU will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Saint Etienne vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (0.85) and PAU's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAU's attack (1.09x) against Saint Etienne's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from Saint Etienne's last 52 games and PAU's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.60
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.26
0.91
PAU xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
7%
15.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.8 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Saint Etienne vs PAU Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 0.91 for PAU, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Saint Etienne come into this having played 51 games, going 22W 14D 15L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.29 PPG from 51 outings (17W 15D 19L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Saint Etienne against 1.29 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Saint Etienne's home form reads 13W 5D 7L across their last 25 home games, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 1.12 points per game from their last 25 away games (7W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.24 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
PAU
Blended
Saint Etienne (Home) vs PAU (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Saint Etienne
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Saint Etienne vs PAU Form FAQs
What form are Saint Etienne and PAU in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 22W 14D 15L in their last 51 games (1.57 PPG), while PAU have gone 17W 15D 19L in their last 51 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or PAU away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.76 PPG; PAU away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, PAU in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Saint Etienne and PAU, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Saint Etienne have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won Saint Etienne 6-0 PAU on 28 Oct 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
1
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Saint Etienne vs PAU H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and PAU?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Saint Etienne have won 4, PAU have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and PAU last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: PAU 0-3 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and PAU?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Saint Etienne see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 36%, PAU 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Saint Etienne) and 40% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Saint Etienne have failed to score in 28% of games; PAU in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Saint Etienne vs PAU Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Saint Etienne and PAU matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 52% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Saint Etienne and PAU matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 40% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and PAU matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 48% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 76% of PAU's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAU defy the odds to beat Saint Etienne 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Saint Etienne 1-2 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.35 xG and PAU 0.91 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. PAU outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.85 / defence 0.71 against PAU attack 1.09 / defence 1.21, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 47% | Draw 28% | PAU 25%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a PAU win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 47%, PAU 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.57 PPG, PAU 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAU (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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