Paris FC 3-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris FC at 50% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Paris FC vs Amiens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Paris FC host Amiens at Stade de l'Aube in Ligue 2 (matchday 6). Kick-off is Saturday 16 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Paris FC — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Paris FC have gone 6W 0D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Amiens have recorded 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Amiens's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Paris FC at 1.40 PPG versus Amiens's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Paris FC: 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Amiens, with 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Mar 2023, ended Paris FC 3–0 Amiens — a Paris FC win.
The head-to-head data gives Paris FC an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Paris FC in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Amiens in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 44% versus Amiens 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 44% | Amiens 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.47 xG and Amiens 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.092 / defence 0.988 | Amiens attack 0.923 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 0.992. Data: built from Paris FC's last 43 games and Amiens's last 43.
Result probabilities: Paris FC 50% | Draw 27% | Amiens 23%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Amiens 4.38. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris FC at 50% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Paris FC 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Paris FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Amiens 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 6 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 50% | Draw 27% | Amiens 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Paris FC 1.47 / Amiens 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.092 / def 0.988 | Amiens attack 0.923 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.282 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Amiens xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Paris FC vs Amiens FAQs
What time does Paris FC vs Amiens kick off?
Paris FC vs Amiens kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Amiens?
Paris FC 3 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Paris FC vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Paris FC vs Amiens part of?
Paris FC vs Amiens is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 6) (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 50% chance of winning, Amiens a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Paris FC and Amiens will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Paris FC vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Paris FC's attack at 1.09x the league average against Amiens's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Paris FC's last 43 games and Amiens's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
50%
2.00
27%
3.70
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.38
0.90
Amiens xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
5%
19.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Paris FC vs Amiens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Paris FC and 0.90 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Paris FC have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 16W 10D 17L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Amiens's form line: 17W 8D 18L from 43 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Paris FC on 1.35 PPG, Amiens on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Paris FC have posted 1.43 PPG from their last 21 home games (9W 3D 9L).
On the road, Amiens have gone 6W 5D 10L from their last 21 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Paris FC are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.12 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Early Season
Amiens
Early Season
Paris FC (Home) vs Amiens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Paris FC
Early Season
Amiens
Early Season
❓ Paris FC vs Amiens Form FAQs
What form are Paris FC and Amiens in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 16W 10D 17L in their last 43 games (1.35 PPG), while Amiens have gone 17W 8D 18L in their last 43 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Amiens away?
Paris FC's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.43 PPG; Amiens away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Amiens in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 11 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Mar 2023, when Paris FC won Paris FC 3-0 Amiens.
Paris FC's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Paris FC
3
Draws
0
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Paris FC vs Amiens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Amiens?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Paris FC have won 5, Amiens have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Amiens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 January 2025: Paris FC 1-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Amiens?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 43%, Amiens 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Paris FC) and 48% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Paris FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Amiens in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Paris FC vs Amiens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Paris FC and Amiens matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Paris FC's recent matches and 52% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Paris FC and Amiens matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Paris FC's recent games and 48% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Amiens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Paris FC's recent matches and 76% of Amiens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Paris FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Amiens 3-0 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.47 xG and Amiens 0.90 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Paris FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Amiens landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.09 / defence 0.99 against Amiens attack 0.92 / defence 1.05, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 50% | Draw 27% | Amiens 23%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 44%, Amiens 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Amiens's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.35 PPG, Amiens 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Paris FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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