Estac Troyes 1-2 Auxerre – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Auxerre at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Estac Troyes face Auxerre.

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Analysis

Auxerre make the trip to Stade de l'Aube to face Estac Troyes in Ligue 2 (matchday 7). The match kicks off on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Estac Troyes have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Estac Troyes have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Auxerre's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Auxerre have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Estac Troyes against 1.00 for Auxerre. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Estac Troyes's last 10 home games and Auxerre's last 10 away games) — Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Auxerre in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Auxerre edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2023, ended Estac Troyes 0–1 Auxerre — a Auxerre win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Estac Troyes — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.

Auxerre — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Estac Troyes 70% and Auxerre 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 64% | Auxerre 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.85 xG and Auxerre 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 1.142 / defence 1.220 | Auxerre attack 1.550 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.034. Auxerre's defence rating of 1.224 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Estac Troyes's projected output up. Auxerre have an above-average attack rating of 1.550, which lifts their away xG to 1.96. Estac Troyes's defence rating of 1.220 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Auxerre's projected output up. Data: built from Estac Troyes's last 6 games and Auxerre's last 6.

Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 37% | Draw 22% | Auxerre 41%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.72 | Draw 4.52 | Auxerre 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (1.85 / 1.96) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Estac Troyes's last 10 home games and Auxerre's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Estac Troyes 70% (last 10 home games) | Auxerre 60% (last 10 away games).

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