Annecy 1-2 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Annecy face Angers.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Angers travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy in Ligue 2 (matchday 37). The game is scheduled for Friday 10 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Annecy stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Annecy at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 2.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Angers — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Angers's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Annecy) versus 1.80 (Angers). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Annecy, 0 for Angers and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Annecy 0–0 Angers — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Annecy in-play tendencies (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Angers in-play tendencies (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 47% versus Angers 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 53% | Angers 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.34 xG and Angers 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.944 / defence 1.128 | Angers attack 0.967 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.146. Data: built from Annecy's last 74 games and Angers's last 36.
Result probabilities: Annecy 39% | Draw 27% | Angers 34%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.59 | Draw 3.67 | Angers 2.93. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Annecy 50% (last 10 home games) | Angers 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 37 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 39% | Draw 27% | Angers 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Annecy 1.34 / Angers 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.944 / def 1.128 | Angers attack 0.967 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Annecy (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Angers xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Annecy vs Angers FAQs
What time does Annecy vs Angers kick off?
Annecy vs Angers kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 10 May 2024 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Angers?
Annecy 1 - 2 Angers.
Where is Annecy vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Angers part of?
Annecy vs Angers is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 37) (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 39% chance of winning, Angers a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Annecy and Angers will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Annecy vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Annecy's attack at 0.94x the league average against Angers's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Angers's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Annecy's last 74 games and Angers's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
39%
2.59
27%
3.67
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.59
1.25
Angers xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
11%
9.04
9%
11.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Annecy vs Angers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Annecy and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Annecy and 1.25 for Angers, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy's recent record stands at 23W 21D 30L from 74 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Angers, meanwhile, have gone 23W 13D 38L across 74 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.22 PPG, Angers on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 14W 10D 13L from their last 37 home games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Angers's away record stands at 7W 7D 23L across their last 37 away games, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 1.18 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Current Season
Angers
Current Season
Annecy (Home) vs Angers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Annecy
Current Season
Angers
Current Season
❓ Annecy vs Angers Form FAQs
What form are Annecy and Angers in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 23W 21D 30L in their last 74 games (1.22 PPG), while Angers have gone 23W 13D 38L in their last 74 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Angers away?
Annecy's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.41 PPG; Angers away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Annecy
1
Draws
1
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Annecy vs Angers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Angers?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Annecy have won 0, Angers have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Annecy and Angers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2024: Annecy 1-2 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Angers?
Angers have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 43%, Angers 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Annecy) and 51% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 35% of games; Angers in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Annecy vs Angers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Annecy and Angers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Annecy's recent matches and 43% of Angers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Annecy and Angers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Annecy's recent games and 51% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Angers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Annecy's recent matches and 76% of Angers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Angers defy the odds to beat Annecy 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Annecy 1-2 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 37, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.34 xG and Angers 1.25 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.94 / defence 1.13 against Angers attack 0.97 / defence 1.16, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 39% | Draw 27% | Angers 34%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Angers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 53%, Angers 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Angers's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.22 PPG, Angers 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Angers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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