Amiens 0-0 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Auxerre travel to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne to take on Amiens in Ligue 2 (matchday 37). The game is scheduled for Friday 10 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Amiens stand at 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Amiens have posted 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Auxerre — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Auxerre have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Auxerre are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Amiens, 2 for Auxerre and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Amiens 1–0 Auxerre — a Amiens win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Amiens trading profile (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Auxerre trading profile (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 47% versus Auxerre 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 36% | Auxerre 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Amiens surrender their half-time lead 41% of the time, while Auxerre have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 39% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.06 xG and Auxerre 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.758 / defence 0.939 | Auxerre attack 1.134 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.146. Amiens's attack rating of 0.758 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Data: built from Amiens's last 74 games and Auxerre's last 36.
Result probabilities: Amiens 32% | Draw 29% | Auxerre 39%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 3.17 | Draw 3.41 | Auxerre 2.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Amiens 50% (last 10 home games) | Auxerre 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 37 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 32% | Draw 29% | Auxerre 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Amiens 1.06 / Auxerre 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.758 / def 0.939 | Auxerre attack 1.134 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Auxerre xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Amiens vs Auxerre FAQs
What time does Amiens vs Auxerre kick off?
Amiens vs Auxerre kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 10 May 2024 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Auxerre?
Amiens 0 - 0 Auxerre.
Where is Amiens vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Auxerre part of?
Amiens vs Auxerre is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 37) (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 32% chance of winning, Auxerre a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Amiens and Auxerre will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Amiens vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Amiens's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Amiens's last 74 games and Auxerre's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
32%
3.17
29%
3.41
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.29
1.22
Auxerre xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
9%
10.75
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Amiens vs Auxerre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Amiens and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Amiens and 1.22 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Amiens come into this having played 74 games, going 24W 24D 26L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.42 PPG from 74 outings (28W 21D 25L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amiens on 1.30 PPG, Auxerre on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Amiens's home form reads 13W 12D 12L across their last 37 home games, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 1.22 points per game from their last 37 away games (12W 9D 16L).
The Goals Picture
Amiens are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.39 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Current Season
Auxerre
Current Season
Amiens (Home) vs Auxerre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Amiens
Current Season
Auxerre
Current Season
❓ Amiens vs Auxerre Form FAQs
What form are Amiens and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 24W 24D 26L in their last 74 games (1.30 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 28W 21D 25L in their last 74 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Auxerre away?
Amiens's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.38 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Amiens or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Auxerre in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Amiens's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Amiens
1
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Amiens vs Auxerre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Auxerre?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Amiens have won 1, Auxerre have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Amiens and Auxerre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2024: Amiens 0-0 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Amiens see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 49%, Auxerre 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Amiens) and 54% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Amiens vs Auxerre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Amiens and Auxerre matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 49% of Amiens's games and 62% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Amiens and Auxerre matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Amiens's recent games and 54% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Auxerre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 46% of Amiens's recent matches and 76% of Auxerre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Amiens's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens and Auxerre finished level at 0-0 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 37, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.06 xG and Auxerre 1.22 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Amiens fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Auxerre landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.76 / defence 0.94 against Auxerre attack 1.13 / defence 1.14, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 32% | Draw 29% | Auxerre 39%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 36%, Auxerre 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Auxerre's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.30 PPG, Auxerre 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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