Lille 3-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lille vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lille host Auxerre at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lille's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Auxerre — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lille at 1.80 PPG versus Auxerre's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lille register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Auxerre in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Lille have won 1, Auxerre 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lille in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Auxerre in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 56% versus Auxerre 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 49% | Auxerre 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.69 xG and Auxerre 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 1.042 / defence 0.790 | Auxerre attack 0.894 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.438. Lille's defence rating of 0.790 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Lille games / 29 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 53% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 23%. Fair-value odds: Lille 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Auxerre 4.35. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lille as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Lille 70% | Auxerre 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 53% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Lille 1.69 / Auxerre 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 1.042 / def 0.790 | Auxerre attack 0.894 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Lille (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Auxerre xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Auxerre kick off?
Lille vs Auxerre kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 April 2025 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Auxerre?
Lille 3 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Lille vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Auxerre part of?
Lille vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 53% chance of winning, Auxerre a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lille and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Auxerre?
Record (3 meetings): Lille 1W | Draws 2 | Auxerre 0W.
What form are Lille and Auxerre in?
Lille (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Auxerre (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lille's attack rating (1.04) and Auxerre's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
53%
1.88
24%
4.14
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Lille xG
Total xG
2.70
1.01
Auxerre xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
4%
23.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Lille and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Lille and 1.01 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lille's recent record stands at 30W 19D 14L from 63 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 30W 17D 16L across 63 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lille on 1.73 PPG, Auxerre on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lille have managed 20W 7D 4L from 31 games — 2.16 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Lille are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Auxerre's away record stands at 11W 8D 12L across 31 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lille are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.68 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Lille have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Current Season
Auxerre
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 30W 19D 14L in their last 63 games (1.73 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 30W 17D 16L in their last 63 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Auxerre away?
Lille's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 2.16 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Lille or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Auxerre in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lille and Auxerre runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2022, when Lille won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lille's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lille
2
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Lille have won 3, Auxerre have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Lille 0-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Auxerre?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 58%, Auxerre 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Lille) and 52% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Lille's games and 61% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lille vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Lille's recent games and 52% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Auxerre tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lille cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Auxerre 3-1 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.69 xG and Auxerre 1.01 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lille beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.04 / defence 0.79 against Auxerre attack 0.89 / defence 1.09, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 53% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 23%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 49%, Auxerre 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Auxerre's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lille 1.73 PPG, Auxerre 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lille win broke the near-deadlock. Lille (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.