Toulouse 1-2 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lille (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Toulouse face Lille.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Toulouse host Lille at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 April 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Toulouse — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Toulouse at Stadium de Toulouse this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lille have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Lille's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Toulouse's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Toulouse register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Lille in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Toulouse, 3 for Lille and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Lille winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Toulouse in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Lille in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 58% versus Lille 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 56% | Lille 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.20 xG and Lille 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.878 / defence 1.091 | Lille attack 0.872 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.399. Data: 62 Toulouse games / 62 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 33% | Draw 27% | Lille 40%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Lille 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 70% | Lille 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 33% | Draw 27% | Lille 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Toulouse 1.20 / Lille 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.878 / def 1.091 | Lille attack 0.872 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Lille (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Lille xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Lille kick off?
Toulouse vs Lille kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Lille?
Toulouse 1 - 2 Lille.
Where is Toulouse vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Lille part of?
Toulouse vs Lille is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 33% chance of winning, Lille a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Toulouse and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Lille?
Record (5 meetings): Toulouse 1W | Draws 1 | Lille 3W.
What form are Toulouse and Lille in?
Toulouse (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Lille (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 0.88x the league average against Lille's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
33%
2.99
27%
3.74
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.53
1.33
Lille xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
9%
11.32
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.6 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.33 for Lille, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Toulouse come into this having played 62 games, going 20W 17D 25L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.71 PPG from 62 outings (29W 19D 14L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Lille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Toulouse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Toulouse's home form reads 7W 11D 13L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.26 points per game from 31 outings (9W 12D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lille's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.52 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Lille in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Current Season
Lille
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Lille in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 20W 17D 25L in their last 62 games (1.24 PPG), while Lille have gone 29W 19D 14L in their last 62 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Lille away?
Lille's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.03 PPG; Lille away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Lille in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 3 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Lille go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Apr 2026, when Lille won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Toulouse's record when hosting Lille specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Toulouse
1
Draws
7
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Lille?
From 9 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 1, Lille have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2026, when Toulouse 0-1 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 68%, Lille 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Toulouse) and 42% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Lille in 39%; Lille in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Lille?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Toulouse's games and 52% of Lille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Toulouse's recent games and 42% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Lille tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Lille in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lille edge out Toulouse 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Toulouse 1-2 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.20 xG and Lille 1.33 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Lille attack 0.87 / defence 0.94, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 33% | Draw 27% | Lille 40%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 56%, Lille 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Lille's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Lille (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.