Reims 1-0 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reims vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reims host Toulouse at Stade Auguste-Delaune in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 April 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Reims have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Reims's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Stade Auguste-Delaune this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Toulouse — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Toulouse away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Reims at 0.70 PPG versus Toulouse's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Reims have won 1, Toulouse 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Toulouse winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Reims trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Toulouse trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 59% versus Toulouse 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 52% | Toulouse 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.07 xG and Toulouse 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.769 / defence 1.050 | Toulouse attack 1.157 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.438. Reims's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 63 Reims games / 63 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 23% | Draw 24% | Toulouse 53%. Fair-value odds: Reims 4.35 | Draw 4.17 | Toulouse 1.89. Toulouse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Reims 50% | Toulouse 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Apr 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 23% | Draw 24% | Toulouse 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Reims 1.07 / Toulouse 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.769 / def 1.050 | Toulouse attack 1.157 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Toulouse xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Toulouse kick off?
Reims vs Toulouse kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 20 April 2025 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Toulouse?
Reims 1 - 0 Toulouse.
Where is Reims vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Toulouse part of?
Reims vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 23% chance of winning, Toulouse a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Reims and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Toulouse?
Record (5 meetings): Reims 1W | Draws 1 | Toulouse 3W.
What form are Reims and Toulouse in?
Reims (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Toulouse (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Reims's attack at 0.77x the league average against Toulouse's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
23%
4.32
24%
4.24
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Reims xG
Total xG
2.81
1.75
Toulouse xG
4.32
23%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
4%
24.74
18%
5.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Reims and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Reims and 1.75 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Reims have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 20W 16D 27L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Toulouse's form line: 20W 17D 26L from 63 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.21 PPG, Toulouse on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Reims have posted 1.19 PPG from 31 outings (10W 7D 14L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 13W 6D 12L from 31 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Reims are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.27 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Current Season
Toulouse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 20W 16D 27L in their last 63 games (1.21 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 20W 17D 26L in their last 63 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.19 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2023, when Reims won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Reims's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Reims
1
Draws
3
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Toulouse?
From 6 meetings on record, Reims have won 2, Toulouse have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Reims 1-0 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 55%, Toulouse 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Reims) and 58% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Reims have failed to score in 32% of games; Toulouse in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Reims's recent matches and 48% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Reims's recent games and 58% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Toulouse tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reims defy the odds to beat Toulouse 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Toulouse 1-0 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.07 xG and Toulouse 1.75 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Toulouse landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.77 / defence 1.05 against Toulouse attack 1.16 / defence 0.93, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 23% | Draw 24% | Toulouse 53%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Reims win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 52%, Toulouse 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Toulouse's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.21 PPG, Toulouse 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.