Kooteepee 0-2 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kooteepee face Mariehamn.

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Analysis & Preview

Mariehamn travel to Arto Tolsa Areena to take on Kooteepee in Veikkausliiga (Relegation Round - 5). The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Kooteepee stand at 1W 0D 9L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Kooteepee have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Kooteepee are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Mariehamn have recorded 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Mariehamn's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kooteepee at 0.30 PPG versus Mariehamn's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Kooteepee have won 1, Mariehamn 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Jul 2023, ended Kooteepee 0–0 Mariehamn — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Kooteepee in-play tendencies (last 26 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

Mariehamn in-play tendencies (last 26 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kooteepee 42% versus Mariehamn 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kooteepee 46% | Mariehamn 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kooteepee 1.19 xG and Mariehamn 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kooteepee attack 0.804 / defence 1.241 | Mariehamn attack 1.025 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.279. Kooteepee's defence rating of 1.241 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Mariehamn's projected output up. Data: built from Kooteepee's last 22 games and Mariehamn's last 44.

Result probabilities: Kooteepee 28% | Draw 25% | Mariehamn 47%. Fair-value odds: Kooteepee 3.62 | Draw 3.98 | Mariehamn 2.11. Mariehamn hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Mariehamn are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mariehamn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Kooteepee's last 10 home games and Mariehamn's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kooteepee 50% (last 10 home games) | Mariehamn 70% (last 10 away games).

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