AC Oulu 1-1 Haka – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AC Oulu at 44%, yet in-form Haka provide a compelling counter-argument — this AC Oulu vs Haka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AC Oulu host Haka at Raatin stadion in Veikkausliiga (Relegation Round - 5). Kick-off is Saturday 21 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, AC Oulu have gone 3W 1D 6L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
AC Oulu's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — AC Oulu are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Haka — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Haka away from home: 3W 0D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Haka — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, AC Oulu have won 2, Haka 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Jul 2023, ended AC Oulu 3–0 Haka — a AC Oulu win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AC Oulu trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Haka trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AC Oulu 64% and Haka 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 67% | Haka 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: AC Oulu surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Haka have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 37% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Haka surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while AC Oulu recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 37% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 1.66 xG and Haka 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 1.003 / defence 1.232 | Haka attack 0.880 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.279. Haka's defence rating of 1.248 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AC Oulu's projected output up. AC Oulu's defence rating of 1.232 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Haka's projected output up. Data: built from AC Oulu's last 44 games and Haka's last 44.
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 44% | Draw 24% | Haka 32%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 2.28 | Draw 4.10 | Haka 3.14. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.66 / 1.39) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AC Oulu as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Haka (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AC Oulu offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (AC Oulu's last 10 home games and Haka's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AC Oulu 70% (last 10 home games) | Haka 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 44% | Draw 24% | Haka 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG AC Oulu 1.66 / Haka 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 1.003 / def 1.232 | Haka attack 0.880 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: AC Oulu (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Haka xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AC Oulu vs Haka FAQs
What time does AC Oulu vs Haka kick off?
AC Oulu vs Haka kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs Haka?
AC Oulu 1 - 1 Haka.
Where is AC Oulu vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs Haka part of?
AC Oulu vs Haka is a Veikkausliiga fixture (Relegation Round - 5) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 44% chance of winning, Haka a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AC Oulu the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both AC Oulu and Haka will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AC Oulu vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AC Oulu's attack at 1.00x the league average against Haka's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Haka's attack versus AC Oulu's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AC Oulu's last 44 games and Haka's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Oulu Win
44%
2.28
24%
4.10
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
3.05
1.39
Haka xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
19%
5.27
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
6%
16.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.9 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AC Oulu vs Haka Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.39 for Haka, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AC Oulu come into this having played 55 games, going 24W 10D 21L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Haka sit at 1.44 PPG from 55 outings (21W 16D 18L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AC Oulu on 1.49 PPG, Haka on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
AC Oulu's home form reads 13W 5D 9L across their last 27 home games, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Haka have taken 1.15 points per game from their last 27 away games (9W 4D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Oulu come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AC Oulu are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.42 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AC Oulu have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Haka in 62%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Blended
Haka
Blended
AC Oulu (Home) vs Haka (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AC Oulu
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ AC Oulu vs Haka Form FAQs
What form are AC Oulu and Haka in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 24W 10D 21L in their last 55 games (1.49 PPG), while Haka have gone 21W 16D 18L in their last 55 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or Haka away?
AC Oulu's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.63 PPG; Haka away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from April 2022. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent in our data was on 19 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
AC Oulu have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Apr 2022, when AC Oulu won AC Oulu 3-0 Haka.
AC Oulu's record when hosting Haka specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AC Oulu
2
Draws
4
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ AC Oulu vs Haka H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Haka?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AC Oulu have won 4, Haka have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and Haka last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2025: Haka 0-1 AC Oulu.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 52%, Haka 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for AC Oulu and 63% for Haka. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AC Oulu have failed to score in 30% of games; Haka in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AC Oulu vs Haka Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AC Oulu and Haka matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of AC Oulu's recent matches and 48% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AC Oulu and Haka matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of AC Oulu's matches and 63% of Haka's.
Do AC Oulu and Haka matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of AC Oulu's recent matches and 85% of Haka's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AC Oulu and Haka share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Raatin stadion, Relegation Round - 5, as AC Oulu and Haka drew 1-1 in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.66 xG and Haka 1.39 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 1.00 / defence 1.23 against Haka attack 0.88 / defence 1.25, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 44% | Draw 24% | Haka 32%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 67%, Haka 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Haka's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AC Oulu 1.49 PPG, Haka 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.