Mariehamn 0-0 Lahti – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lahti at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mariehamn vs Lahti encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Mariehamn welcome Lahti to Wiklöf Holding Arena in Veikkausliiga (Relegation Round - 4). Kick-off is Sunday 8 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Mariehamn have gone 2W 1D 7L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Mariehamn have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Lahti — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Lahti have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Lahti's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Mariehamn's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Mariehamn have won 2, Lahti 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Jul 2023, ended Mariehamn 2–0 Lahti — a Mariehamn win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Mariehamn trading profile (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Lahti trading profile (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 64% versus Lahti 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 52% | Lahti 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 0.95 xG and Lahti 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.702 / defence 1.085 | Lahti attack 0.830 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.279. Mariehamn's attack rating of 0.702 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from Mariehamn's last 44 games and Lahti's last 44.
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 30% | Draw 30% | Lahti 40%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 3.39 | Draw 3.29 | Lahti 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lahti are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lahti offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Mariehamn's last 10 home games and Lahti's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mariehamn 40% (last 10 home games) | Lahti 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Lahti | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 30% | Draw 30% | Lahti 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Mariehamn 0.95 / Lahti 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.702 / def 1.085 | Lahti attack 0.830 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Lahti (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Lahti xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mariehamn vs Lahti FAQs
What time does Mariehamn vs Lahti kick off?
Mariehamn vs Lahti kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Lahti?
Mariehamn 0 - 0 Lahti.
Where is Mariehamn vs Lahti being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Lahti part of?
Mariehamn vs Lahti is a Veikkausliiga fixture (Relegation Round - 4) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Lahti?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 30% chance of winning, Lahti a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lahti the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Lahti?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Mariehamn and Lahti will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Mariehamn vs Lahti have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mariehamn's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Lahti's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Lahti's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mariehamn's last 44 games and Lahti's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lahti Win
30%
3.39
30%
3.29
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.10
1.15
Lahti xG
3.39
30%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
9%
10.73
16%
6.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 14.1 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mariehamn vs Lahti Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Lahti?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Lahti expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.15 for Lahti, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Lahti?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mariehamn come into this having played 52 games, going 13W 13D 26L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Lahti sit at 0.94 PPG from 52 outings (12W 13D 27L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mariehamn on 1.00 PPG, Lahti on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Mariehamn's home form reads 7W 8D 11L across their last 26 home games, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Lahti have taken 0.88 points per game from their last 26 away games (5W 8D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Mariehamn are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Lahti are on 0.98 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mariehamn have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
Lahti
Blended
Mariehamn (Home) vs Lahti (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mariehamn
Blended
Lahti
Blended
❓ Mariehamn vs Lahti Form FAQs
What form are Mariehamn and Lahti in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 13W 13D 26L in their last 52 games (1.00 PPG), while Lahti have gone 12W 13D 27L in their last 52 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or Lahti away?
Mariehamn's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.12 PPG; Lahti away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2022. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 8 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Lahti have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Sep 2022, when Mariehamn won Mariehamn 6-0 Lahti.
Mariehamn's record when hosting Lahti specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mariehamn
3
Draws
5
Lahti
Recent Meetings
❓ Mariehamn vs Lahti H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Lahti?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mariehamn have won 2, Lahti have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Lahti last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 September 2026: Lahti 2-1 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Lahti?
Lahti have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Lahti are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 62%, Lahti 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mariehamn) and 54% (Lahti).
On the defensive side: Mariehamn have failed to score in 27% of games; Lahti in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Lahti away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mariehamn vs Lahti Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mariehamn and Lahti matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 46% of Lahti's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mariehamn and Lahti matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mariehamn's recent games and 54% of Lahti's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and Lahti matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 73% of Lahti's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mariehamn's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn and Lahti finished level at 0-0 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Relegation Round - 4, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 0.95 xG and Lahti 1.15 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mariehamn fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Lahti landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.70 / defence 1.08 against Lahti attack 0.83 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 30% | Draw 30% | Lahti 40%, with Lahti to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 52%, Lahti 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lahti's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mariehamn 1.00 PPG, Lahti 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mariehamn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Lahti (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.