West Ham 0-2 Fulham – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates West Ham at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as West Ham face Fulham.

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Analysis

Fulham make the trip to London Stadium to face West Ham in Premier League (matchday 33). The match kicks off on Sunday 14 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

West Ham have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, West Ham have gone 3W 6D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Fulham (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Fulham have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for West Ham, 1.40 for Fulham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from West Ham's last 10 home games and Fulham's last 10 away games) — West Ham have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Fulham in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for West Ham, 1 for Fulham and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Dec 2023, ended West Ham 0–5 Fulham — a Fulham win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

West Ham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Fulham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 54% versus Fulham 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 51% | Fulham 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 2.00 xG and Fulham 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 0.921 / defence 1.030 | Fulham attack 0.869 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.741 / away 1.499. Fulham's defence rating of 1.248 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing West Ham's projected output up. Data: built from West Ham's last 70 games and Fulham's last 70.

Result probabilities: West Ham 52% | Draw 24% | Fulham 24%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 1.94 | Draw 4.18 | Fulham 4.09. West Ham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.00 / 1.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is West Ham at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Ham if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (West Ham's last 10 home games and Fulham's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: West Ham 60% (last 10 home games) | Fulham 70% (last 10 away games).

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