Liverpool 0-1 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Liverpool at 72% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Liverpool vs Crystal Palace encounter.

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Analysis

Crystal Palace make the trip to Anfield to face Liverpool in Premier League (matchday 33). The match kicks off on Sunday 14 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Form

Liverpool (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Liverpool's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Crystal Palace's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Crystal Palace have posted 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form favours the hosts. Liverpool's 2.30 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Crystal Palace's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Liverpool's last 10 home games and Crystal Palace's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 90% of Liverpool's games and 80% of Crystal Palace's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Liverpool, 0 for Crystal Palace and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended Liverpool 2–1 Crystal Palace — a Liverpool win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Liverpool goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 69 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 69%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

Crystal Palace goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 69 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Liverpool 61% versus Crystal Palace 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liverpool 64% | Crystal Palace 46%). Note also that Crystal Palace surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while Liverpool recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 69% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Liverpool 2.47 xG and Crystal Palace 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liverpool attack 1.300 / defence 0.797 | Crystal Palace attack 0.720 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.741 / away 1.499. Liverpool carry an above-average attack rating of 1.300 — their 2.47 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Crystal Palace's attack rating of 0.720 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Liverpool have a tight defence (rating 0.797), which is pulling Crystal Palace's projected output down. Data: built from Liverpool's last 69 games and Crystal Palace's last 69.

Result probabilities: Liverpool 72% | Draw 18% | Crystal Palace 10%. Fair-value odds: Liverpool 1.39 | Draw 5.52 | Crystal Palace 9.85. The model has a clear lean to Liverpool (72%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Liverpool at 72% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Liverpool's last 10 home games and Crystal Palace's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Liverpool 90% (last 10 home games) | Crystal Palace 80% (last 10 away games).

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