Sutton Utd 1-3 Stockport County – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Stockport County at 44% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sutton Utd vs Stockport County encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Sutton Utd welcome Stockport County to VBS Community Stadium in League Two (matchday 43). Kick-off is Saturday 6 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Sutton Utd have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Sutton Utd have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Stockport County — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling, Stockport County have posted 3W 6D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Sutton Utd) versus 1.60 (Stockport County). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 90% of Sutton Utd's games and 60% of Stockport County's (from Sutton Utd's last 10 home games and Stockport County's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

Stockport County have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Sutton Utd. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Sutton Utd 0–8 Stockport County — a Stockport County win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Stockport County have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

In-Play Data

Sutton Utd trading profile (last 88 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Stockport County trading profile (last 88 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sutton Utd 56% versus Stockport County 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sutton Utd 44% | Stockport County 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sutton Utd surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Stockport County have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sutton Utd 1.37 xG and Stockport County 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sutton Utd attack 1.004 / defence 1.049 | Stockport County attack 1.228 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.286. Stockport County have an above-average attack rating of 1.228, which lifts their away xG to 1.66. Data: built from Sutton Utd's last 88 games and Stockport County's last 86.

Result probabilities: Sutton Utd 31% | Draw 25% | Stockport County 44%. Fair-value odds: Sutton Utd 3.22 | Draw 3.93 | Stockport County 2.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.37 / 1.66) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Stockport County 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sutton Utd's last 10 home games and Stockport County's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sutton Utd 90% (last 10 home games) | Stockport County 60% (last 10 away games).

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