Mansfield Town 1-4 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mansfield Town at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
One Call Stadium plays host to Mansfield Town versus Crawley Town in League Two, Regular Season - 43. Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mansfield Town have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at One Call Stadium, Mansfield Town have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Crawley Town (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 League Two outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in League Two this season, Crawley Town have posted 7W 0D 3L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Crawley Town arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Mansfield Town have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Crawley Town managing just 1 victories and 0 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 3–1 with Mansfield Town winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Mansfield Town and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Mansfield Town — key trading statistics (86 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (86 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 62% versus Crawley Town 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 52% | Crawley Town 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 1.53 xG and Crawley Town 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 1.317 / defence 0.944 | Crawley Town attack 1.154 / defence 0.804. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.286. Mansfield Town carry an above-average attack strength of 1.317 — their λ of 1.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 86 Mansfield Town games / 86 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 40% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 34%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Crawley Town 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Mansfield Town dominate the H2H record, yet Crawley Town are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Mansfield Town as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Crawley Town (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Mansfield Town 70% | Crawley Town 30%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 40% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Mansfield Town 1.53 / Crawley Town 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 1.317 / def 0.944 | Crawley Town attack 1.154 / def 0.804 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Crawley Town xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at One Call Stadium.
What was the final score in Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town?
Mansfield Town 1 - 4 Crawley Town.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town part of?
Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 40% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Mansfield Town and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Crawley Town?
Record (5 meetings): Mansfield Town 4W | Draws 0 | Crawley Town 1W.
What form are Mansfield Town and Crawley Town in?
Mansfield Town (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Crawley Town (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mansfield Town's attack at 1.32x the league average against Crawley Town's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (1.15x) against Mansfield Town's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 86/86 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.82
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
2.93
1.40
Crawley Town xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
10%
10.22
7%
13.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 1.40 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mansfield Town come into this having played 86 games, going 41W 25D 20L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 1.26 PPG from 86 outings (30W 18D 38L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Mansfield Town carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Mansfield Town's home form reads 19W 15D 8L across 42 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 1.00 points per game from 42 outings (11W 9D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mansfield Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.27 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 86 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mansfield Town and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 41W 25D 20L in their last 86 games (1.72 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 30W 18D 38L in their last 86 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Crawley Town away?
Mansfield Town's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 1.71 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Mansfield Town or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mansfield Town have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mansfield Town won 4-1 on 1 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mansfield Town have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Mansfield Town
0
Draws
3
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Crawley Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Mansfield Town have won 5, Crawley Town have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2025, when Mansfield Town 0-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Mansfield Town and Crawley Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 62%, Crawley Town 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mansfield Town) and 52% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Crawley Town in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mansfield Town play Crawley Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Mansfield Town's games and 50% of Crawley Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mansfield Town's recent games and 52% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mansfield Town and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Mansfield Town have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Crawley Town run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Mansfield Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Mansfield Town 1-4 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.53 xG and Crawley Town 1.40 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Crawley Town outscored their 1.40 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 1.32 / defence 0.94 against Crawley Town attack 1.15 / defence 0.80, drawn from 86/86 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 40% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 34%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Crawley Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 52%, Crawley Town 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mansfield Town's trading profile (86 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Crawley Town's trading profile (86 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mansfield Town arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Crawley Town winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.