Stockport County 1-0 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Stockport County at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stockport County face AFC Wimbledon.

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Fixture Analysis

Stockport County welcome AFC Wimbledon to Edgeley Park in League Two (matchday 42). Kick-off is Monday 1 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Stockport County have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

In front of their own supporters, Stockport County have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

AFC Wimbledon — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

AFC Wimbledon's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Stockport County) versus 1.30 (AFC Wimbledon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Stockport County have won 2, AFC Wimbledon 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 9 Sep 2023, ended Stockport County 2–1 AFC Wimbledon — a Stockport County win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Stockport County in-play tendencies (last 87 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

AFC Wimbledon in-play tendencies (last 87 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 49% versus AFC Wimbledon 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 46% | AFC Wimbledon 39%). Note also that AFC Wimbledon surrender HT leads in 41% of cases while Stockport County recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.49 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.252 / defence 0.735 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.719 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.273. Stockport County carry an above-average attack rating of 1.252 — their 1.49 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. AFC Wimbledon's attack rating of 0.719 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.67. Stockport County have a tight defence (rating 0.735), which is pulling AFC Wimbledon's projected output down. Data: built from Stockport County's last 85 games and AFC Wimbledon's last 87.

Result probabilities: Stockport County 56% | Draw 28% | AFC Wimbledon 16%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.79 | Draw 3.53 | AFC Wimbledon 6.34. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (56%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stockport County 40% (last 10 home games) | AFC Wimbledon 40% (last 10 away games).

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