Doncaster 1-0 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Doncaster at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Doncaster face AFC Wimbledon.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Doncaster host AFC Wimbledon at Eco-Power Stadium in League Two (matchday 35). Kick-off is Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Doncaster have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Doncaster's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
AFC Wimbledon — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
AFC Wimbledon away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Doncaster at 1.20 PPG versus AFC Wimbledon's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Doncaster have won 1, AFC Wimbledon 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Doncaster 0–2 AFC Wimbledon — a AFC Wimbledon win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Doncaster in-play tendencies (last 78 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
AFC Wimbledon in-play tendencies (last 78 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Doncaster 51% versus AFC Wimbledon 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Doncaster 55% | AFC Wimbledon 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Doncaster 1.26 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Doncaster attack 0.939 / defence 1.311 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.675 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.316. AFC Wimbledon's attack rating of 0.675 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Doncaster's defence rating of 1.311 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AFC Wimbledon's projected output up. Data: built from Doncaster's last 78 games and AFC Wimbledon's last 79.
Result probabilities: Doncaster 38% | Draw 29% | AFC Wimbledon 33%. Fair-value odds: Doncaster 2.64 | Draw 3.43 | AFC Wimbledon 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Doncaster at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Doncaster offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Doncaster 50% (last 10 home games) | AFC Wimbledon 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Doncaster vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League Two, matchday 35 | Venue: Eco-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Doncaster 38% | Draw 29% | AFC Wimbledon 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Doncaster 1.26 / AFC Wimbledon 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Doncaster attack 0.939 / def 1.311 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.675 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Doncaster (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Doncaster xG
Expected Goals
1.16
AFC Wimbledon xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Doncaster vs AFC Wimbledon FAQs
What time does Doncaster vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Doncaster vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Eco-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Doncaster vs AFC Wimbledon?
Doncaster 1 - 0 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Doncaster vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Eco-Power Stadium.
What competition is Doncaster vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Doncaster vs AFC Wimbledon is a League Two fixture (matchday 35) (England).
Who is favourite to win Doncaster vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Doncaster a 38% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Doncaster the favourite.
Will both teams score in Doncaster vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Doncaster and AFC Wimbledon will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Doncaster vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Doncaster's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against AFC Wimbledon's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Wimbledon's attack versus Doncaster's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Doncaster's last 78 games and AFC Wimbledon's last 79 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Doncaster Win
38%
2.64
29%
3.43
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Doncaster xG
Total xG
2.43
1.16
AFC Wimbledon xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
9%
10.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.3 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Doncaster vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Doncaster vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Doncaster and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Doncaster and 1.16 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Doncaster vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Doncaster come into this having played 78 games, going 26W 13D 39L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, AFC Wimbledon sit at 1.18 PPG from 78 outings (22W 26D 30L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Doncaster on 1.17 PPG, AFC Wimbledon on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Doncaster's home form reads 18W 3D 18L across their last 39 home games, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, AFC Wimbledon have taken 1.05 points per game from their last 39 away games (9W 14D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Doncaster come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Doncaster are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.19 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 78 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Doncaster
Current Season
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
Doncaster (Home) vs AFC Wimbledon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Doncaster
Current Season
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
❓ Doncaster vs AFC Wimbledon Form FAQs
What form are Doncaster and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Doncaster have gone 26W 13D 39L in their last 78 games (1.17 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 22W 26D 30L in their last 78 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Doncaster at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Doncaster's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Doncaster at home: 1.46 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Doncaster or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Doncaster have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. They cover more than one competition — League One, League Two. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Doncaster's record when hosting AFC Wimbledon specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Doncaster
3
Draws
4
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Doncaster vs AFC Wimbledon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Doncaster and AFC Wimbledon?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Doncaster have won 3, AFC Wimbledon have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Doncaster and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Doncaster.
Who has won more matches between Doncaster and AFC Wimbledon?
AFC Wimbledon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Doncaster are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Doncaster 49%, AFC Wimbledon 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Doncaster) and 46% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon in 36%; Doncaster have failed to score in 33% of games; AFC Wimbledon in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Doncaster home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Doncaster vs AFC Wimbledon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Doncaster and AFC Wimbledon matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Doncaster's recent matches and 49% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Doncaster and AFC Wimbledon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Doncaster's recent games and 46% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Doncaster and AFC Wimbledon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Doncaster's recent matches and 54% of AFC Wimbledon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Doncaster edge out AFC Wimbledon 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Doncaster beat AFC Wimbledon 1-0 at Eco-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Doncaster 1.26 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.16 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AFC Wimbledon landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Doncaster attack 0.94 / defence 1.31 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.68 / defence 0.92, drawn from 78/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Doncaster 38% | Draw 29% | AFC Wimbledon 33%, with Doncaster to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Doncaster 55%, AFC Wimbledon 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Doncaster's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Doncaster 1.17 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Doncaster win broke the near-deadlock. Doncaster (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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