Crawley Town 1-1 Stockport County – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Stockport County at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Crawley Town face Stockport County.

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Analysis

Stockport County make the trip to Broadfield Stadium to face Crawley Town in League Two (matchday 39). The match kicks off on Monday 18 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time.

Current Form

Crawley Town's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Crawley Town's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Stockport County have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Stockport County have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.60 for Stockport County. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Stockport County's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Crawley Town's games and 70% of Stockport County's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Crawley Town, 1 for Stockport County and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Crawley Town 3–3 Stockport County — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Crawley Town half-time and goal-timing data (last 82 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Stockport County half-time and goal-timing data (last 82 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 36 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 55% versus Stockport County 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 52% | Stockport County 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.43 xG and Stockport County 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.997 / defence 0.980 | Stockport County attack 1.198 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.286. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 82 games and Stockport County's last 82.

Result probabilities: Crawley Town 36% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 39%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.82 | Draw 3.91 | Stockport County 2.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.43 / 1.51) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Stockport County's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 80% (last 10 home games) | Stockport County 70% (last 10 away games).

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