Crawley Town 1-1 Stockport County – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Stockport County at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Stockport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Stockport County make the trip to Broadfield Stadium to face Crawley Town in League Two, Regular Season - 39. The match kicks off on Monday 18 March 2024 at 19:45 UTC.

Current Form

Crawley Town's overall League Two record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Crawley Town's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Broadfield Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Stockport County have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Stockport County have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.60 for Stockport County. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Crawley Town register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Stockport County in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Crawley Town 1W, Stockport County 1W, 1D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Crawley Town half-time and goal-timing data (82 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Stockport County half-time and goal-timing data (82 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 55% versus Stockport County 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 52% | Stockport County 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.43 xG and Stockport County 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.997 / defence 0.980 | Stockport County attack 1.198 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.286. Data: 82 Crawley Town games / 82 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Crawley Town 36% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 39%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Stockport County 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 80% | Stockport County 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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