Bradford 1-5 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mansfield Town at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bradford vs Mansfield Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 39 sees Mansfield Town travel to University of Bradford Stadium to take on Bradford. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Bradford have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Bradford at University of Bradford Stadium this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at University of Bradford Stadium.
Mansfield Town — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in League Two this season, Mansfield Town have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bradford 1.60 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Bradford have won 2, Mansfield Town 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bradford trading profile (83 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Mansfield Town trading profile (83 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 49% versus Mansfield Town 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 43% | Mansfield Town 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 0.94 xG and Mansfield Town 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.812 / defence 0.919 | Mansfield Town attack 1.250 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.274. Mansfield Town have an above-average attack strength of 1.250 — the away xG of 1.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 82 Bradford games / 83 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 24% | Draw 28% | Mansfield Town 49%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Mansfield Town 2.04. Mansfield Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mansfield Town as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Bradford 40% | Mansfield Town 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: University of Bradford Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 24% | Draw 28% | Mansfield Town 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Bradford 0.94 / Mansfield Town 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 0.812 / def 0.919 | Mansfield Town attack 1.250 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Mansfield Town xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Bradford vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at University of Bradford Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Mansfield Town?
Bradford 1 - 5 Mansfield Town.
Where is Bradford vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at University of Bradford Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs Mansfield Town part of?
Bradford vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 24% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bradford and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Mansfield Town?
Record (5 meetings): Bradford 2W | Draws 2 | Mansfield Town 1W.
What form are Bradford and Mansfield Town in?
Bradford (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Mansfield Town (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bradford's attack at 0.81x the league average against Mansfield Town's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mansfield Town's attack versus Bradford's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 82/83 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
24%
4.23
28%
3.63
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.41
1.47
Mansfield Town xG
4.23
24%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
5%
18.29
19%
5.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 13.2 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Bradford and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Bradford and 1.47 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bradford come into this having played 83 games, going 34W 26D 23L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Mansfield Town sit at 1.73 PPG from 83 outings (40W 24D 19L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bradford on 1.54 PPG, Mansfield Town on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bradford's home form reads 16W 17D 8L across 41 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Mansfield Town have taken 1.78 points per game from 41 outings (21W 10D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bradford are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.75 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town in 61%.
Defensively: Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 83 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Current Season
Mansfield Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 34W 26D 23L in their last 83 games (1.54 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 40W 24D 19L in their last 83 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Mansfield Town away?
Mansfield Town's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 1.59 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Bradford or Mansfield Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Mansfield Town in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2024, when Mansfield Town won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bradford's record when hosting Mansfield Town specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Bradford
3
Draws
3
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Mansfield Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Bradford have won 2, Mansfield Town have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Bradford 1-1 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 56%, Mansfield Town 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Bradford) and 56% (Mansfield Town).
On the defensive side: Bradford keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play Mansfield Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Bradford's games and 63% of Mansfield Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bradford vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Bradford's recent games and 56% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mansfield Town run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Bradford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town beat Bradford 1-5 at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 0.94 xG and Mansfield Town 1.47 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Mansfield Town outscored their 1.47 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.81 / defence 0.92 against Mansfield Town attack 1.25 / defence 0.81, drawn from 82/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 24% | Draw 28% | Mansfield Town 49%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 43%, Mansfield Town 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bradford 1.54 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mansfield Town win broke the near-deadlock. Bradford (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.02 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.