Tranmere 1-3 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tranmere at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Tranmere face Crawley Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Tranmere welcome Crawley Town to Prenton Park in League Two (matchday 40). Kick-off is Saturday 23 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Tranmere stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Tranmere's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Tranmere are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Crawley Town — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Crawley Town away from home: 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Tranmere 1.40 PPG, Crawley Town 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Tranmere, 2 for Crawley Town and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Tranmere 2–3 Crawley Town — a Crawley Town win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Tranmere trading profile (last 83 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Crawley Town trading profile (last 83 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tranmere 47% versus Crawley Town 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tranmere 42% | Crawley Town 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tranmere 1.57 xG and Crawley Town 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tranmere attack 1.206 / defence 0.863 | Crawley Town attack 0.901 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.281. Data: built from Tranmere's last 85 games and Crawley Town's last 83.
Result probabilities: Tranmere 50% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 23%. Fair-value odds: Tranmere 2.00 | Draw 3.74 | Crawley Town 4.29. Tranmere hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tranmere at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tranmere offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tranmere 70% (last 10 home games) | Crawley Town 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tranmere vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 40 | Venue: Prenton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 23 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tranmere 50% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Tranmere 1.57 / Crawley Town 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Tranmere attack 1.206 / def 0.863 | Crawley Town attack 0.901 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Tranmere (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Tranmere xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Crawley Town xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tranmere vs Crawley Town FAQs
What time does Tranmere vs Crawley Town kick off?
Tranmere vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 23 March 2024 at Prenton Park.
What was the final score in Tranmere vs Crawley Town?
Tranmere 1 - 3 Crawley Town.
Where is Tranmere vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Prenton Park.
What competition is Tranmere vs Crawley Town part of?
Tranmere vs Crawley Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 40) (England).
Who is favourite to win Tranmere vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Tranmere a 50% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Tranmere the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tranmere vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Tranmere and Crawley Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Tranmere vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Tranmere's attack rating (1.21) and Crawley Town's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Tranmere's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Tranmere's last 85 games and Crawley Town's last 83 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tranmere Win
50%
2.00
27%
3.74
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Tranmere xG
Total xG
2.56
1.00
Crawley Town xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
5%
20.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tranmere vs Crawley Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tranmere vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Tranmere and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Tranmere and 1.00 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Tranmere vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Tranmere come into this having played 83 games, going 30W 18D 35L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 1.23 PPG from 83 outings (28W 18D 37L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tranmere on 1.30 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Tranmere's home form reads 21W 8D 12L across their last 41 home games, a 1.73 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Tranmere are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 0.88 points per game from their last 41 away games (9W 9D 23L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tranmere come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Tranmere are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.23 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 83 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tranmere
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
Tranmere (Home) vs Crawley Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tranmere
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
❓ Tranmere vs Crawley Town Form FAQs
What form are Tranmere and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Tranmere have gone 30W 18D 35L in their last 83 games (1.30 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 28W 18D 37L in their last 83 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tranmere at home or Crawley Town away?
Tranmere's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tranmere at home: 1.73 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Tranmere or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tranmere have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Tranmere's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Tranmere
1
Draws
3
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Tranmere vs Crawley Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tranmere and Crawley Town?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Tranmere have won 5, Crawley Town have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Tranmere and Crawley Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Crawley Town 1-1 Tranmere.
Who has won more matches between Tranmere and Crawley Town?
Tranmere have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tranmere are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tranmere 46%, Crawley Town 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Tranmere) and 49% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Tranmere keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Crawley Town in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tranmere home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tranmere vs Crawley Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tranmere and Crawley Town matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Tranmere's recent matches and 49% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Tranmere and Crawley Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Tranmere's recent games and 49% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tranmere and Crawley Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Tranmere's recent matches and 68% of Crawley Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Tranmere.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Tranmere 1-3 at Prenton Park, Regular Season - 40, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tranmere 1.57 xG and Crawley Town 1.00 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Crawley Town outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tranmere attack 1.21 / defence 0.86 against Crawley Town attack 0.90 / defence 0.93, drawn from 85/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tranmere 50% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 23%, with Tranmere to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Crawley Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tranmere 42%, Crawley Town 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tranmere's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Crawley Town's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tranmere 1.30 PPG, Crawley Town 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Tranmere (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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