Wycombe 1-1 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lincoln at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wycombe face Lincoln.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wycombe host Lincoln at Adams Park in League One (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 13 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Wycombe — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Wycombe have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Wycombe are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Lincoln have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Lincoln away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wycombe 0.70 PPG, Lincoln 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Wycombe, 2 for Lincoln and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.6 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Wycombe 0–3 Lincoln — a Lincoln win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Wycombe in-play and half-time data (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wycombe 44% versus Lincoln 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wycombe 45% | Lincoln 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wycombe 1.07 xG and Lincoln 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wycombe attack 0.850 / defence 1.196 | Lincoln attack 0.833 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.144. Data: built from Wycombe's last 71 games and Lincoln's last 72.
Result probabilities: Wycombe 33% | Draw 30% | Lincoln 37%. Fair-value odds: Wycombe 3.03 | Draw 3.29 | Lincoln 2.73. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lincoln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Wycombe's last 10 home games and Lincoln's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wycombe 40% (last 10 home games) | Lincoln 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wycombe vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, matchday 28 | Venue: Adams Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wycombe 33% | Draw 30% | Lincoln 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Wycombe 1.07 / Lincoln 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Wycombe attack 0.850 / def 1.196 | Lincoln attack 0.833 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Wycombe xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Lincoln xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wycombe vs Lincoln FAQs
What time does Wycombe vs Lincoln kick off?
Wycombe vs Lincoln kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Adams Park.
What was the final score in Wycombe vs Lincoln?
Wycombe 1 - 1 Lincoln.
Where is Wycombe vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at Adams Park.
What competition is Wycombe vs Lincoln part of?
Wycombe vs Lincoln is a League One fixture (matchday 28) (England).
Who is favourite to win Wycombe vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Wycombe a 33% chance of winning, Lincoln a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wycombe vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Wycombe and Lincoln will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Wycombe vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wycombe's attack rating (0.85) and Lincoln's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lincoln's attack versus Wycombe's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wycombe's last 71 games and Lincoln's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
33%
3.03
30%
3.29
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Wycombe xG
Total xG
2.21
1.14
Lincoln xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
11%
9.48
13%
7.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wycombe vs Lincoln Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wycombe vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Wycombe and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Wycombe and 1.14 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Wycombe vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 71 outings, Wycombe have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 27W 17D 27L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Lincoln's form line: 22W 27D 22L from 71 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wycombe on 1.38 PPG, Lincoln on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Wycombe have posted 1.51 PPG from their last 35 home games (15W 8D 12L).
On the road, Lincoln have gone 10W 9D 16L from their last 35 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Wycombe are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.06 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Lincoln in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wycombe
Blended
Lincoln
Blended
Wycombe (Home) vs Lincoln (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wycombe
Blended
Lincoln
Blended
❓ Wycombe vs Lincoln Form FAQs
What form are Wycombe and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Wycombe have gone 27W 17D 27L in their last 71 games (1.38 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 22W 27D 22L in their last 71 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wycombe at home or Lincoln away?
Wycombe's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wycombe at home: 1.51 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Wycombe or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wycombe have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Lincoln in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Aug 2023, when Lincoln won Lincoln 3-0 Wycombe.
Wycombe's record when hosting Lincoln specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Wycombe
3
Draws
3
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Wycombe vs Lincoln H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wycombe and Lincoln?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Wycombe have won 4, Lincoln have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wycombe and Lincoln last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Lincoln 4-3 Wycombe.
Who has won more matches between Wycombe and Lincoln?
Wycombe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wycombe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wycombe 43%, Lincoln 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Wycombe) and 37% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Wycombe keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Lincoln in 34%; Wycombe have failed to score in 29% of games; Lincoln in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wycombe home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wycombe vs Lincoln Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wycombe and Lincoln matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Wycombe's recent matches and 37% of Lincoln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wycombe and Lincoln matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Wycombe's recent games and 37% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wycombe and Lincoln matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Wycombe's recent matches and 74% of Lincoln's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wycombe and Lincoln share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wycombe and Lincoln finished level at 1-1 at Adams Park, Regular Season - 28, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wycombe 1.07 xG and Lincoln 1.14 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wycombe attack 0.85 / defence 1.20 against Lincoln attack 0.83 / defence 0.90, drawn from 71/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wycombe 33% | Draw 30% | Lincoln 37%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wycombe 45%, Lincoln 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wycombe's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Lincoln's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wycombe 1.38 PPG, Lincoln 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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