Shrewsbury 0-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shrewsbury vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stevenage make the trip to The Croud Meadow to face Shrewsbury in League One, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 January 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shrewsbury's overall League One record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shrewsbury, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shrewsbury's home record at The Croud Meadow: 5W 1D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Stevenage have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Stevenage are 0.70 PPG clear of Shrewsbury in recent League One fixtures (2.00 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Shrewsbury 0W, Stevenage 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with Stevenage winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Shrewsbury — key trading statistics (71 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Stevenage — key trading statistics (71 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 38% versus Stevenage 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 45% | Stevenage 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.30 xG and Stevenage 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.927 / defence 1.098 | Stevenage attack 1.084 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.144. Data: 72 Shrewsbury games / 25 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 35% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 38%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Stevenage 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Shrewsbury 40% | Stevenage 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: The Croud Meadow • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 35% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Shrewsbury 1.30 / Stevenage 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.927 / def 1.098 | Stevenage attack 1.084 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Stevenage xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Stevenage kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at The Croud Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Stevenage?
Shrewsbury 0 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at The Croud Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Stevenage part of?
Shrewsbury vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 35% chance of winning, Stevenage a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Shrewsbury and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Stevenage?
Record (1 meetings): Shrewsbury 0W | Draws 0 | Stevenage 1W.
What form are Shrewsbury and Stevenage in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Stevenage (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Shrewsbury's attack rating (0.93) and Stevenage's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (1.08x) against Shrewsbury's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 72/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
35%
2.85
27%
3.67
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.67
1.36
Stevenage xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
9%
11.13
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.36 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shrewsbury's recent record stands at 26W 10D 35L from 71 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Shrewsbury is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 36W 20D 15L across 71 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stevenage by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shrewsbury heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Shrewsbury have managed 18W 4D 14L from 36 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 14W 12D 10L across 36 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.38 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 26W 10D 35L in their last 71 games (1.24 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 36W 20D 15L in their last 71 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Stevenage away?
Shrewsbury's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.61 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Shrewsbury or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shrewsbury have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Stevenage in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Stevenage have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shrewsbury have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Shrewsbury
0
Draws
4
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Stevenage?
From 4 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 0, Stevenage have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Shrewsbury 0-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Stevenage?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 47%, Stevenage 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Shrewsbury) and 42% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 31%; Shrewsbury have failed to score in 39% of games; Stevenage in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 50% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shrewsbury vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 42% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Stevenage tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Shrewsbury 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Shrewsbury 0-1 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 28, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.30 xG and Stevenage 1.36 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shrewsbury fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.93 / defence 1.10 against Stevenage attack 1.08 / defence 1.01, drawn from 72/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 35% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 38%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 45%, Stevenage 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (71 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stevenage's trading profile (71 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.