Lincoln 0-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lincoln vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lincoln and Derby meet at LNER Stadium in League One (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Lincoln's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Lincoln at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Derby have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Derby have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Derby arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Lincoln, 1 for Derby and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Dec 2023, ended Lincoln 1–3 Derby — a Derby win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Lincoln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Derby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 43% versus Derby 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 32% | Derby 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lincoln surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Derby have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 0.98 xG and Derby 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 0.862 / defence 1.012 | Derby attack 1.374 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.163. Derby have an above-average attack rating of 1.374, which lifts their away xG to 1.62. Data: built from Lincoln's last 73 games and Derby's last 72.
Result probabilities: Lincoln 22% | Draw 26% | Derby 52%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 4.53 | Draw 3.81 | Derby 1.94. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lincoln 60% (last 10 home games) | Derby 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Derby | Competition: League One, matchday 29 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 22% | Draw 26% | Derby 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Lincoln 0.98 / Derby 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 0.862 / def 1.012 | Derby attack 1.374 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Derby (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Derby xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lincoln vs Derby FAQs
What time does Lincoln vs Derby kick off?
Lincoln vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 20 January 2024 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Derby?
Lincoln 0 - 0 Derby.
Where is Lincoln vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Derby part of?
Lincoln vs Derby is a League One fixture (matchday 29) (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 22% chance of winning, Derby a 52% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lincoln and Derby will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lincoln vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lincoln's attack rating (0.86) and Derby's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derby's attack (1.37x) against Lincoln's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from Lincoln's last 73 games and Derby's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
22%
4.53
26%
3.81
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.59
1.62
Derby xG
4.53
22%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
4%
22.83
19%
5.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 12.1 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lincoln vs Derby Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Lincoln and 1.62 for Derby, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Lincoln have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 22W 28D 22L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Derby's form line: 37W 17D 18L from 72 games, 1.78 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Derby are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lincoln.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lincoln have posted 1.47 PPG from their last 34 home games (11W 17D 6L).
On the road, Derby have gone 17W 7D 10L from their last 34 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Lincoln are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.62 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Derby in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Blended
Derby
Blended
Lincoln (Home) vs Derby (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lincoln
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Lincoln vs Derby Form FAQs
What form are Lincoln and Derby in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 22W 28D 22L in their last 72 games (1.31 PPG), while Derby have gone 37W 17D 18L in their last 72 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Derby away?
Derby's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.47 PPG; Derby away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Lincoln or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Derby in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Lincoln and Derby, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 20 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lincoln have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Lincoln
2
Draws
1
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Lincoln vs Derby H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Derby?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Lincoln have won 1, Derby have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Derby last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 January 2024: Lincoln 0-0 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 47%, Derby 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Lincoln) and 50% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Lincoln keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Derby in 32%; Lincoln have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lincoln vs Derby Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lincoln and Derby matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Lincoln's recent matches and 53% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lincoln and Derby matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Lincoln's recent games and 50% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Derby matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Lincoln's recent matches and 71% of Derby's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lincoln's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln and Derby finished level at 0-0 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 0.98 xG and Derby 1.62 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lincoln fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Derby landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 0.86 / defence 1.01 against Derby attack 1.37 / defence 0.82, drawn from 73/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 22% | Draw 26% | Derby 52%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 32%, Derby 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (72 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derby's trading profile (72 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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