Burton Albion 0-3 Derby – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Burton Albion face Derby.

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Analysis & Preview

Derby travel to Pirelli Stadium to take on Burton Albion in League One (matchday 2). The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Burton Albion stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Burton Albion's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Burton Albion are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Derby — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, Derby have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Burton Albion) versus 1.20 (Derby). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Burton Albion, 1 for Derby and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 22 Apr 2023, ended Burton Albion 0–1 Derby — a Derby win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Burton Albion trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Derby trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 49% versus Derby 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 51% | Derby 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Burton Albion surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Derby have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.34 xG and Derby 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 1.020 / defence 1.019 | Derby attack 1.046 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.074. Data: built from Burton Albion's last 47 games and Derby's last 47. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Burton Albion 41% | Draw 27% | Derby 32%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.44 | Draw 3.71 | Derby 3.13. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Burton Albion as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burton Albion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Burton Albion 50% (last 10 home games) | Derby 70% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Burton Albion 47 games, Derby 47) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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