Burton Albion 0-3 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Derby travel to Pirelli Stadium to take on Burton Albion. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 August 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burton Albion stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Burton Albion have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Burton Albion's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Pirelli Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pirelli Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Burton Albion are significantly better at Pirelli Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Derby — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Derby have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Derby have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Burton Albion) versus 1.20 (Derby). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Burton Albion, 1 for Derby and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Derby winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Burton Albion trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Derby trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 49% versus Derby 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 51% | Derby 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.34 xG and Derby 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 1.020 / defence 1.019 | Derby attack 1.046 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.074. Data: 47 Burton Albion games / 47 Derby games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 41% | Draw 27% | Derby 32%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Derby 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Burton Albion as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burton Albion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 50% | Derby 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (47 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Derby | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Aug 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 41% | Draw 27% | Derby 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Burton Albion 1.34 / Derby 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 1.020 / def 1.019 | Derby attack 1.046 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Derby xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Derby kick off?
Burton Albion vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Derby?
Burton Albion 0 - 3 Derby.
Where is Burton Albion vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Derby part of?
Burton Albion vs Derby is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 41% chance of winning, Derby a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Burton Albion and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Derby?
Record (2 meetings): Burton Albion 0W | Draws 1 | Derby 1W.
What form are Burton Albion and Derby in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Derby (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Burton Albion's attack rating (1.02) and Derby's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (47/47 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
41%
2.44
27%
3.71
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.48
1.15
Derby xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
8%
11.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.15 for Derby, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Burton Albion have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 15W 11D 21L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Burton Albion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Derby's form line: 21W 13D 13L from 47 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Derby are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burton Albion.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Burton Albion have posted 1.48 PPG from 23 outings (9W 7D 7L).
On the road, Derby have gone 8W 7D 8L from 23 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Burton Albion are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.45 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Derby in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Early Season
Derby
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Derby in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 15W 11D 21L in their last 47 games (1.19 PPG), while Derby have gone 21W 13D 13L in their last 47 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Derby away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.48 PPG; Derby away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Derby in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Burton Albion and Derby runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derby have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Aug 2023, when Derby won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burton Albion's record when hosting Derby specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Burton Albion
1
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Derby?
From 4 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 0, Derby have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2024, when Derby 3-2 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 44%, Derby 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Burton Albion) and 39% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Derby in 30%; Burton Albion have failed to score in 35% of games; Derby in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 48% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Burton Albion's recent games and 39% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Derby tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Derby in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Derby run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Burton Albion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Burton Albion 0-3 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.34 xG and Derby 1.15 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Burton Albion fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Derby outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 1.02 / defence 1.02 against Derby attack 1.05 / defence 0.99, drawn from 47/47 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 41% | Draw 27% | Derby 32%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Derby win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 51%, Derby 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derby's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.