Derby 1-2 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Derby face Wigan.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derby and Wigan meet at Pride Park Stadium in League One (matchday 1). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Derby's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Derby at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Wigan (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Wigan's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Derby — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Wigan — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 48% versus Wigan 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 44% | Wigan 37%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Derby surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Wigan have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Wigan surrender HT leads in 57% of cases while Derby recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.68 xG and Wigan 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.017 / defence 0.924 | Wigan attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.158. Data: built from Derby's last 46 games and Wigan's last 0. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Derby 55% | Draw 24% | Wigan 20%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.80 | Draw 4.10 | Wigan 4.96. The model has a clear lean to Derby (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Derby's last 10 home games and Wigan's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Derby 40% (last 10 home games) | Wigan 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Derby 46 games, Wigan 0) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Wigan | Competition: League One, matchday 1 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 55% | Draw 24% | Wigan 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Derby 1.68 / Wigan 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.017 / def 0.924 | Wigan attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Derby (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Wigan xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Derby vs Wigan FAQs
What time does Derby vs Wigan kick off?
Derby vs Wigan kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Wigan?
Derby 1 - 2 Wigan.
Where is Derby vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Wigan part of?
Derby vs Wigan is a League One fixture (matchday 1) (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 55% chance of winning, Wigan a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Derby and Wigan will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Derby vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Derby's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Wigan's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Wigan's attack (0.85x) against Derby's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from Derby's last 46 games and Wigan's last 0, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
55%
1.80
24%
4.10
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Derby xG
Total xG
2.59
0.91
Wigan xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
4%
26.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.5 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Derby vs Wigan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Derby and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Derby and 0.91 for Wigan, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Wigan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Derby's recent record stands at 21W 13D 12L from 46 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Wigan, meanwhile, have gone 10W 15D 21L across 46 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derby by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wigan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Derby have managed 13W 6D 4L from their last 23 home games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wigan's away record stands at 5W 8D 10L across their last 23 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derby are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 0.83 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Pre-Season
Wigan
Pre-Season
Derby (Home) vs Wigan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Derby
Pre-Season
Wigan
Pre-Season
❓ Derby vs Wigan Form FAQs
What form are Derby and Wigan in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 21W 13D 12L in their last 46 games (1.65 PPG), while Wigan have gone 10W 15D 21L in their last 46 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Wigan away?
Derby's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.96 PPG; Wigan away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Derby or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Wigan in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 26 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Derby
0
Draws
1
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Derby vs Wigan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Wigan?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Derby have won 1, Wigan have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Wigan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 December 2023: Wigan 0-1 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 48%, Wigan 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Derby) and 39% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Wigan in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Derby vs Wigan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Derby and Wigan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Derby's recent matches and 61% of Wigan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Derby and Wigan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Derby's recent games and 39% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Wigan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Derby's recent matches and 74% of Wigan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wigan defy the odds to beat Derby 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wigan beat Derby 1-2 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.68 xG and Wigan 0.91 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Wigan outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.02 / defence 0.92 against Wigan attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 46/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 55% | Draw 24% | Wigan 20%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Wigan win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 44%, Wigan 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Wigan's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Wigan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wigan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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