Exeter City 0-0 Blackpool – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Exeter City at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Exeter City face Blackpool.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
St James Park plays host to Exeter City versus Blackpool in League One (matchday 2). Kick-off: Saturday 12 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Exeter City (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Exeter City have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Exeter City are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Blackpool's record over their last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Blackpool away from home: 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Exeter City, 1.20 for Blackpool — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Exeter City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Blackpool goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 51% versus Blackpool 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Exeter City 51% | Blackpool 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 1.65 xG and Blackpool 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 1.084 / defence 1.014 | Blackpool attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.074. Data: built from Exeter City's last 47 games and Blackpool's last 1. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Exeter City 54% | Draw 24% | Blackpool 21%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 1.84 | Draw 4.08 | Blackpool 4.74. Exeter City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Exeter City at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Exeter City if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Exeter City 50% (last 10 home games) | Blackpool 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Exeter City 47 games, Blackpool 1) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Exeter City vs Blackpool | Competition: League One, matchday 2 | Venue: St James Park • Kick-off: Saturday 12 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Exeter City 54% | Draw 24% | Blackpool 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Exeter City 1.65 / Blackpool 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Exeter City attack 1.084 / def 1.014 | Blackpool attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Exeter City (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Exeter City xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Blackpool xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Exeter City vs Blackpool FAQs
What time does Exeter City vs Blackpool kick off?
Exeter City vs Blackpool kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 12 August 2023 at St James Park.
What was the final score in Exeter City vs Blackpool?
Exeter City 0 - 0 Blackpool.
Where is Exeter City vs Blackpool being played?
The match is being played at St James Park.
What competition is Exeter City vs Blackpool part of?
Exeter City vs Blackpool is a League One fixture (matchday 2) (England).
Who is favourite to win Exeter City vs Blackpool?
Our statistical model gives Exeter City a 54% chance of winning, Blackpool a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Exeter City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Exeter City vs Blackpool?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Exeter City and Blackpool will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Exeter City vs Blackpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Exeter City's attack at 1.08x the league average against Blackpool's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Blackpool's attack (0.85x) against Exeter City's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Exeter City's last 47 games and Blackpool's last 1, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Exeter City Win
54%
1.84
24%
4.08
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Exeter City xG
Total xG
2.58
0.93
Blackpool xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
22%
4.64
4%
24.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.6 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Exeter City vs Blackpool Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs Blackpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Exeter City and Blackpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Exeter City and 0.93 for Blackpool, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs Blackpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Exeter City's recent record stands at 16W 11D 20L from 47 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Blackpool, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 24L across 47 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Exeter City against 1.00 for Blackpool. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Exeter City have managed 10W 5D 8L from their last 23 home games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Blackpool's away record stands at 5W 5D 13L across their last 23 away games, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Exeter City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Exeter City are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Blackpool are on 1.06 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Exeter City
Early Season
Blackpool
Early Season
Exeter City (Home) vs Blackpool (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Exeter City
Early Season
Blackpool
Early Season
❓ Exeter City vs Blackpool Form FAQs
What form are Exeter City and Blackpool in coming into this match?
Exeter City have gone 16W 11D 20L in their last 47 games (1.26 PPG), while Blackpool have gone 12W 11D 24L in their last 47 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Exeter City at home or Blackpool away?
Exeter City's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Exeter City at home: 1.52 PPG; Blackpool away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Exeter City and Blackpool, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 3 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Exeter City won Exeter City 4-1 Blackpool on 9 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Exeter City have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Blackpool — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Exeter City
1
Draws
4
Blackpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Exeter City vs Blackpool H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Blackpool?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Exeter City have won 1, Blackpool have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Exeter City and Blackpool last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 April 2026: Blackpool 1-0 Exeter City.
Who has won more matches between Exeter City and Blackpool?
Blackpool have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Exeter City see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Blackpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Exeter City 52%, Blackpool 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Exeter City) and 48% (Blackpool).
On the defensive side: Exeter City have failed to score in 30% of games; Blackpool in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Exeter City home games / Blackpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Exeter City vs Blackpool Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Exeter City and Blackpool matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Exeter City's recent matches and 48% of Blackpool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Exeter City and Blackpool matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Exeter City's recent games and 48% of Blackpool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Exeter City and Blackpool matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Exeter City's recent matches and 78% of Blackpool's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Exeter City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at St James Park, Regular Season - 2, as Exeter City and Blackpool drew 0-0 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.65 xG and Blackpool 0.93 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Exeter City fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Blackpool landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 1.08 / defence 1.01 against Blackpool attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 47/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Exeter City 54% | Draw 24% | Blackpool 21%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 51%, Blackpool 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Exeter City's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Blackpool's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Exeter City 1.26 PPG, Blackpool 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Exeter City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Blackpool (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League One fixtures — matchday 2
All League One fixtures →
More UK football predictions →