Bolton 3-3 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bolton (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bolton face Charlton.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 34 as Bolton welcome Charlton to Toughsheet Community Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bolton stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 League One matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Bolton's home record at Toughsheet Community Stadium: 7W 1D 2L from 10 League One appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Charlton have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Charlton's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Bolton are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 2.00 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bolton register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Charlton in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Bolton have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 5 past contests while Charlton have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 2–0 with Bolton winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bolton and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Bolton trading profile (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Charlton trading profile (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bolton 42% versus Charlton 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 40% | Charlton 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 1.93 xG and Charlton 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 1.229 / defence 0.909 | Charlton attack 0.863 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.193. Data: 76 Bolton games / 78 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bolton 61% | Draw 22% | Charlton 18%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Charlton 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Bolton (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bolton are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Bolton 60% | Charlton 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bolton vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bolton 61% | Draw 22% | Charlton 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 52% | xG Bolton 1.93 / Charlton 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Bolton attack 1.229 / def 0.909 | Charlton attack 0.863 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Bolton (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Bolton xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Charlton xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bolton vs Charlton kick off?
Bolton vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Bolton vs Charlton?
Bolton 3 - 3 Charlton.
Where is Bolton vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What competition is Bolton vs Charlton part of?
Bolton vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bolton vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Bolton a 61% chance of winning, Charlton a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bolton and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Bolton vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Charlton?
Record (5 meetings): Bolton 5W | Draws 0 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Bolton and Charlton in?
Bolton (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Charlton (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bolton's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Bolton's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 76/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
61%
1.65
22%
4.61
18%
5.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Bolton xG
Total xG
2.86
0.94
Charlton xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
5.63
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
15%
6.87
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
3%
38.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bolton vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Bolton and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Bolton and 0.94 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Bolton vs Charlton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 78 outings, Bolton have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 42W 18D 18L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Charlton's form line: 23W 25D 30L from 78 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Bolton are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charlton.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bolton have posted 2.03 PPG from 38 outings (23W 8D 7L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 8W 14D 16L from 38 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bolton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bolton are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.46 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 65%.
Defensively: Bolton have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 78 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bolton
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bolton and Charlton in coming into this match?
Bolton have gone 42W 18D 18L in their last 78 games (1.85 PPG), while Charlton have gone 23W 25D 30L in their last 78 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bolton at home or Charlton away?
Bolton's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bolton at home: 2.03 PPG; Charlton away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Bolton or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bolton have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Charlton in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Charlton have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2021, when Bolton won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bolton's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Bolton
1
Draws
2
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Charlton?
From 8 meetings on record, Bolton have won 5, Charlton have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bolton and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2025, when Bolton 1-2 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Bolton and Charlton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bolton 45%, Charlton 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Bolton) and 45% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Bolton keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Charlton in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bolton home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bolton play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Bolton's recent matches and 58% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bolton vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Bolton's recent games and 45% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bolton and Charlton tend to score early?
Bolton have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Charlton in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bolton and Charlton share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 34, as Bolton and Charlton drew 3-3 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.93 xG and Charlton 0.94 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Bolton beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Charlton outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.23 / defence 0.91 against Charlton attack 0.86 / defence 1.17, drawn from 76/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bolton 61% | Draw 22% | Charlton 18%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 40%, Charlton 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bolton's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Charlton's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bolton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.