Carlisle 0-4 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambridge United at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Carlisle vs Cambridge United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 34 as Carlisle welcome Cambridge United to Brunton Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Carlisle — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Brunton Park, Carlisle have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cambridge United stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Cambridge United's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Cambridge United's 1.40 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Carlisle's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Carlisle register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cambridge United in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Carlisle, 1 for Cambridge United and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Cambridge United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Carlisle in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Cambridge United in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 49% versus Cambridge United 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carlisle 41% | Cambridge United 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 1.09 xG and Cambridge United 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 0.708 / defence 1.321 | Cambridge United attack 0.817 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.193. Carlisle's attack strength of 0.708 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Carlisle games / 76 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carlisle 31% | Draw 28% | Cambridge United 41%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Cambridge United 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambridge United at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambridge United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Carlisle 60% | Cambridge United 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Brunton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 31% | Draw 28% | Cambridge United 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Carlisle 1.09 / Cambridge United 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 0.708 / def 1.321 | Cambridge United attack 0.817 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Cambridge United (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Cambridge United xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carlisle vs Cambridge United kick off?
Carlisle vs Cambridge United kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Brunton Park.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs Cambridge United?
Carlisle 0 - 4 Cambridge United.
Where is Carlisle vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Brunton Park.
What competition is Carlisle vs Cambridge United part of?
Carlisle vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 31% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cambridge United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Carlisle and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Carlisle vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Cambridge United?
Record (1 meetings): Carlisle 0W | Draws 0 | Cambridge United 1W.
What form are Carlisle and Cambridge United in?
Carlisle (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Cambridge United (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Carlisle's attack at 0.71x the league average against Cambridge United's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cambridge United's attack versus Carlisle's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambridge United Win
31%
3.18
28%
3.62
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Carlisle xG
Total xG
2.38
1.29
Cambridge United xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
9%
11.54
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Carlisle and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Carlisle and 1.29 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Carlisle have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 24W 23D 29L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Cambridge United's form line: 22W 15D 39L from 76 games, 1.07 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carlisle on 1.25 PPG, Cambridge United on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Carlisle have posted 1.38 PPG from 37 outings (13W 12D 12L).
On the road, Cambridge United have gone 6W 7D 24L from 37 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carlisle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Carlisle are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 0.88 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 76 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Current Season
Cambridge United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carlisle and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 24W 23D 29L in their last 76 games (1.25 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 22W 15D 39L in their last 76 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or Cambridge United away?
Carlisle's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 1.38 PPG; Cambridge United away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Carlisle
0
Draws
2
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Cambridge United?
From 2 meetings on record, Carlisle have won 0, Cambridge United have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Carlisle and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Carlisle 0-4 Cambridge United.
Who has won more matches between Carlisle and Cambridge United?
Cambridge United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carlisle 49%, Cambridge United 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Carlisle) and 51% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Carlisle have failed to score in 32% of games; Cambridge United in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carlisle play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Carlisle's recent matches and 49% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carlisle vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Carlisle's recent games and 51% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carlisle and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Carlisle have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cambridge United run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Carlisle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambridge United beat Carlisle 0-4 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 1.09 xG and Cambridge United 1.29 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Carlisle fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Cambridge United outscored their 1.29 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.71 / defence 1.32 against Cambridge United attack 0.82 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 31% | Draw 28% | Cambridge United 41%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 41%, Cambridge United 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cambridge United's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carlisle 1.25 PPG, Cambridge United 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambridge United win broke the near-deadlock. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.