Charlton 1-1 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lincoln at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Lincoln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lincoln make the trip to The Valley to face Charlton in League One (matchday 33). The match kicks off on Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Current Form
Charlton's record over their last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Charlton's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Charlton are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lincoln (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Lincoln's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Lincoln arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Lincoln edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2023, ended Charlton 1–3 Lincoln — a Lincoln win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 77 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Lincoln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 77 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 65% versus Lincoln 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 53% | Lincoln 31%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Charlton surrender their half-time lead 32% of the time, while Lincoln have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Lincoln surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Charlton recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.19 xG and Lincoln 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.059 / defence 1.255 | Lincoln attack 0.840 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.172. Charlton's defence rating of 1.255 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lincoln's projected output up. Data: built from Charlton's last 77 games and Lincoln's last 77.
Result probabilities: Charlton 35% | Draw 28% | Lincoln 37%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.86 | Draw 3.64 | Lincoln 2.67. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lincoln are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lincoln if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Charlton 70% (last 10 home games) | Lincoln 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, matchday 33 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 35% | Draw 28% | Lincoln 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Charlton 1.19 / Lincoln 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.059 / def 1.255 | Lincoln attack 0.840 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Lincoln xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charlton vs Lincoln FAQs
What time does Charlton vs Lincoln kick off?
Charlton vs Lincoln kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 13 February 2024 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Lincoln?
Charlton 1 - 1 Lincoln.
Where is Charlton vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Lincoln part of?
Charlton vs Lincoln is a League One fixture (matchday 33) (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 35% chance of winning, Lincoln a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Charlton and Lincoln will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Charlton vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Charlton's attack at 1.06x the league average against Lincoln's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lincoln's attack (0.84x) against Charlton's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from Charlton's last 77 games and Lincoln's last 77 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
35%
2.86
28%
3.64
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.42
1.24
Lincoln xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
10%
9.83
11%
8.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charlton vs Lincoln Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Charlton and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Charlton and 1.24 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 77 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 23W 24D 30L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Lincoln's form line: 24W 31D 22L from 77 games, 1.34 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Charlton against 1.34 for Lincoln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.41 PPG from their last 39 home games (15W 10D 14L).
On the road, Lincoln have gone 12W 11D 16L from their last 39 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charlton are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.04 scored and 1.01 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lincoln in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 77 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Lincoln
Current Season
Charlton (Home) vs Lincoln (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charlton
Current Season
Lincoln
Current Season
❓ Charlton vs Lincoln Form FAQs
What form are Charlton and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 23W 24D 30L in their last 77 games (1.21 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 24W 31D 22L in their last 77 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Lincoln away?
Charlton's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.41 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Charlton or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Lincoln in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lincoln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Charlton
4
Draws
3
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Charlton vs Lincoln H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Lincoln?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Charlton have won 1, Lincoln have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Lincoln last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2025: Charlton 2-2 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Lincoln?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 72%, Lincoln 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Charlton) and 36% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Lincoln in 36%; Lincoln in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charlton vs Lincoln Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charlton and Lincoln matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Charlton's games and 38% of Lincoln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Charlton and Lincoln matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Charlton's recent games and 36% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Lincoln matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Charlton's recent matches and 72% of Lincoln's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton and Lincoln share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton and Lincoln finished level at 1-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.19 xG and Lincoln 1.24 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.06 / defence 1.25 against Lincoln attack 0.84 / defence 0.85, drawn from 77/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 35% | Draw 28% | Lincoln 37%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 53%, Lincoln 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (77 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Lincoln's trading profile (77 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.21 PPG, Lincoln 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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