West Brom 0-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates West Brom at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Brom vs Sunderland encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

West Brom and Sunderland meet at The Hawthorns in Championship (matchday 43). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Current Form

West Brom's record over their last 10 games: 5W 5D 0L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

West Brom's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — West Brom are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Sunderland (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Sunderland's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in West Brom's favour (2.00 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Sunderland edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended West Brom 1–2 Sunderland — a Sunderland win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

West Brom half-time and goal-timing data (last 88 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 31 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).

Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (last 88 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 50% versus Sunderland 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 41% | Sunderland 52%). Note also that Sunderland surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while West Brom recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.28 xG and Sunderland 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 1.101 / defence 0.763 | Sunderland attack 0.850 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.164. West Brom have a tight defence (rating 0.763), which is pulling Sunderland's projected output down. Data: built from West Brom's last 88 games and Sunderland's last 88.

Result probabilities: West Brom 49% | Draw 29% | Sunderland 22%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 2.05 | Draw 3.43 | Sunderland 4.54. West Brom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is West Brom at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Brom if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (West Brom's last 10 home games and Sunderland's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: West Brom 30% (last 10 home games) | Sunderland 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights