Middlesbrough 0-2 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Middlesbrough at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Middlesbrough face Plymouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Plymouth travel to Riverside Stadium to take on Middlesbrough in Championship (matchday 34). The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Middlesbrough have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Middlesbrough have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Plymouth — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Plymouth away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Middlesbrough) versus 1.00 (Plymouth). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Middlesbrough have won 0, Plymouth 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 6.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Middlesbrough 3–3 Plymouth — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Middlesbrough in-play tendencies (last 79 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Plymouth in-play tendencies (last 79 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Middlesbrough 62% versus Plymouth 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Middlesbrough 62% | Plymouth 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Middlesbrough 1.39 xG and Plymouth 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Middlesbrough attack 0.870 / defence 1.006 | Plymouth attack 0.739 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.260. Plymouth's attack rating of 0.739 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Middlesbrough's last 78 games and Plymouth's last 33.
Result probabilities: Middlesbrough 47% | Draw 27% | Plymouth 25%. Fair-value odds: Middlesbrough 2.11 | Draw 3.67 | Plymouth 3.95. Middlesbrough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Middlesbrough are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Middlesbrough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Middlesbrough 50% (last 10 home games) | Plymouth 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Middlesbrough vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, matchday 34 | Venue: Riverside Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Middlesbrough 47% | Draw 27% | Plymouth 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Middlesbrough 1.39 / Plymouth 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Middlesbrough attack 0.870 / def 1.006 | Plymouth attack 0.739 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Middlesbrough (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Middlesbrough xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Plymouth xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Middlesbrough vs Plymouth FAQs
What time does Middlesbrough vs Plymouth kick off?
Middlesbrough vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Riverside Stadium.
What was the final score in Middlesbrough vs Plymouth?
Middlesbrough 0 - 2 Plymouth.
Where is Middlesbrough vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Riverside Stadium.
What competition is Middlesbrough vs Plymouth part of?
Middlesbrough vs Plymouth is a Championship fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win Middlesbrough vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Middlesbrough a 47% chance of winning, Plymouth a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Middlesbrough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Middlesbrough and Plymouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Middlesbrough vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Middlesbrough's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Middlesbrough's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Middlesbrough's last 78 games and Plymouth's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Middlesbrough Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.67
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Middlesbrough xG
Total xG
2.33
0.94
Plymouth xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
6%
15.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.7 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Middlesbrough vs Plymouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Middlesbrough vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Middlesbrough and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Middlesbrough and 0.94 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Middlesbrough vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 79 outings, Middlesbrough have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 35W 14D 30L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Plymouth's form line: 40W 18D 21L from 79 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Middlesbrough on 1.51 PPG, Plymouth on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Middlesbrough have posted 1.69 PPG from their last 39 home games (19W 9D 11L).
On the road, Plymouth have gone 12W 13D 14L from their last 39 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Middlesbrough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Middlesbrough are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.68 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Middlesbrough have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 79 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Middlesbrough
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
Middlesbrough (Home) vs Plymouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Middlesbrough
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
❓ Middlesbrough vs Plymouth Form FAQs
What form are Middlesbrough and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Middlesbrough have gone 35W 14D 30L in their last 79 games (1.51 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 40W 18D 21L in their last 79 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Middlesbrough at home or Plymouth away?
Middlesbrough's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Middlesbrough at home: 1.69 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Middlesbrough or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Middlesbrough have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Plymouth in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 18 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Middlesbrough's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Middlesbrough
2
Draws
1
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Middlesbrough vs Plymouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Plymouth?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Middlesbrough have won 1, Plymouth have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Middlesbrough and Plymouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2025: Middlesbrough 2-1 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Middlesbrough 51%, Plymouth 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Middlesbrough) and 59% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Middlesbrough keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Middlesbrough home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Middlesbrough vs Plymouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Middlesbrough and Plymouth matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 51% of Middlesbrough's games and 62% of Plymouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Middlesbrough and Plymouth matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Middlesbrough's recent games and 59% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Middlesbrough and Plymouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Middlesbrough's recent matches and 69% of Plymouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Middlesbrough.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Middlesbrough 0-2 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 1.39 xG and Plymouth 0.94 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Middlesbrough fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Plymouth outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 0.87 / defence 1.01 against Plymouth attack 0.74 / defence 1.16, drawn from 78/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 47% | Draw 27% | Plymouth 25%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Plymouth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 62%, Plymouth 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Middlesbrough's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Plymouth's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Middlesbrough 1.51 PPG, Plymouth 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plymouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.49 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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